Tuesday, December 11, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side after the open today at SPX 1426.  Volatility drops with the VIX falling thru 15.79 which is a very bullish signal. The four-day indecision finally ends. The algo lost a percent and one-half on the last trade as the drama played out. Watch VIX 15.79 moving forward as a major bull-bear signal.  Stay on guard for a whipsaw which would not be surprising today or tomorrow but this will not occur unless volatility moves higher.


12/16/12; 7:00 PM EST =
12/11/12; 9:52 AM EST = +33; signal line is +11
12/11/12; 9:35 AM EST = +17; signal line is +10; go long 1426; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +13.4%)(Keybot this trade = -1.4%; Keybot for 2012 = +20.2%)(Actual this trade = -1.5%; Actual for 2012 = +18.0%)
12/9/12; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +9 but algorithm says stay short
12/7/12; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +8 but algorithm says stay short
12/7/12; 9:00 AM EST = +19; signal line is +6 but algorithm says stay short
12/5/12; 11:34 AM EST = +19; signal line is +6 but algorithm says stay short
12/5/12; 10:40 AM EST = +3; signal line is +5
12/5/12; 9:30 AM EST = +19; signal line is +4 but algorithm says stay short
12/4/12; 1:47 PM EST = +3; signal line is +2 but algorithm says stay short
12/4/12; 11:05 AM EST = -13; signal line is +2; go short 1407; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +12.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +21.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.1%; Actual for 2012 = +19.5%)

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