Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo number is only one point from the signal line showing that the markets remain a knock-down, drag-out, bull-bear battle. The VIX moving above 15.79 supplies bear fuel. The RTH 44.35 is a major focus today (the quant may adjust this number a few pennies either way once trading begins). The bulls need to push the VIX under 15.79 to regain their mojo; the bears need to push the RTH under 44.35 to create market selling pressure. Interestingly, Retail Sales data hits in three hours and this will directly impact the RTH.
For the SPX starting at 1428 today, the bulls need to travel higher to touch the 1439 handle, if so, an upside acceleration will occur with the SPX moving to 1441 and 1446. The bears have an easier road ahead only needing to push the SPX one point lower, under 1427, and a downside acceleration will occur. A move thru 1428-1437 is sideways action today. Markets remain erratic and unstable, yesterday's action proves this point as well as Keybot's current status. VIX 15.79, RTH 44.35 and SPX 1427 and 1439, will dictate market direction today. If the RTH drops under 44.35, and the SPX drops under 1427 and heads lower, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. The importance of the Retail Sales data this morning cannot be understated.
12/16/12;
7:00 PM EST =
12/12/12; 3:28 PM EST
= +17; signal line is +16
12/12/12;
12:39 AM EST = +33; signal line is +16
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