Thursday, March 12, 2015


Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Friday session. The bulls stage a big comeback rally on Thursday and the algo was very active printing six numbers. Financials were key and the XLF moved above 24.15 so the fix was in and the bull party began. The algo number is only four points from the signal line so the imminent turn status is in play. The algo is tracking volatility, utilities, copper and the NYA index. The bulls need either JJC (copper) above 31.86 (only pennies away) and/or NYA above 10845 to lock in the upside rally. If either parameter turns bullish, one of the two is good enough, and the SPX moves above 2066 (only a smidge higher), Keybot will likely flip to the long side.

The bears need to push either VIX above 15.75 and/or UTIL below 574 to halt the stock market rally. For the SPX starting at 2066, the bulls only need a smidge higher, to push above 2066.40, and the upside will accelerate. The bears need to push under 2041 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2042-2066 is sideways action to end the week. 

Watch copper overnight since any positivity in copper likely points the way to bull victory and the algo likely flipping long. Ditto the S&P futures; any positivity likely points to a bull victory. Bears need to keep copper negative and S&P futures negative overnight. The bears are driving the bus but the bulls have their hands on the steering wheel as well trying to wrestle back control. Tomorrow may be a more interesting day of trading than today's wild day. On Thursday evening, both the S&P futures and copper are a smidge higher although there are many hours before Friday morning's opening bell.

3/15/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/15; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/15; 3:05 PM EST = +38; signal line is +42
3/12/15; 12:09 PM EST = +24; signal line is +43
3/12/15; 11:23 AM EST = +38; signal line is +44
3/12/15; 10:16 AM EST = +24; signal line is +45
3/12/15; 10:15 AM EST = +8; signal line is +48
3/12/15; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +48
3/10/15; 11:25 AM EST = -8; signal line is +49

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