Monday, March 16, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips ot the long side after the opening bell today at SPX 2066. This move was telegraphed from late last Friday and utilities jump higher and volatility lower to create upside juice. In addition, the NYA Index moved above the 10841 level creating more bull fuel. Interestingly, howerver, the VIX is at 15.62 and the bull-bear line is 15.87 so the  move under is not overly convincing. Most importantly, copper is benign today and sitting only a single hair above the 31.88 bull-bear line in the sand printing at 31.89. Thus, bears can stop the upside rally if they push JJC under 31.88 only a couple pennies lower. Bears also need either NYA under 10841 or VIX above 15.87 to also stop the bull party today.

The Keybot algorithm computer program gains a couple percent on the last trade and is now positive on the year up +0.5% and a hair above the benchmark SPX index up +0.3% on the year (call it flat). The actual trading for the year is recovering from the choppy start that had chewed up bulls and bears alike during January-February and is now down -1.6% on the year. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the double-leveraged ETF's.

The algo number is 40 points above the signal line so the bulls have strength and are in full control. If either JJC, NYA or VIX turn bearish again, as described above, consider the caution flag to be out and the bears fighting back. For now, the bulls are driving the bus again. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw. Anything can happen in these erratic and unstable markets.

3/22/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/15; 9:00 AM EST =
3/16/15; 11:17 AM EST = +67; signal line is +27
3/16/15; 10:30 AM EST = +53; signal line is +25
3/16/15; 10:13 AM EST = +67; signal line is +25
3/16/15; 9:48 AM EST = +53; signal line is +24
3/16/15; 9:36 AM EST = +39; signal line is +24; go long 2066; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.5%)(Actual results this trade = +3.2%; Actual results for 2015 = -1.6%)
3/15/15; 7:00 PM EST = +23; signal line is +24
3/13/15; 2:02 PM EST = +23; signal line is +26
3/13/15; 1:01 PM EST = +7; signal line is +28
3/13/15; 12:25 PM EST = +23; signal line is +31
3/13/15; 10:32 AM EST = +7; signal line is +33
3/13/15; 10:24 AM EST = +21; signal line is +35
3/13/15; 10:12 AM EST = +7; signal line is +37
3/13/15; 10:00 AM EST = +21; signal line is +39
3/13/15; 9:47 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41
3/12/15; 3:05 PM EST = +38; signal line is +42
3/12/15; 12:09 PM EST = +24; signal line is +43
3/12/15; 11:23 AM EST = +38; signal line is +44
3/12/15; 10:16 AM EST = +24; signal line is +45
3/12/15; 10:15 AM EST = +8; signal line is +48
3/12/15; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +48
3/10/15; 11:25 AM EST = -8; signal line is +49
3/10/15; 10:30 AM EST = +8; signal line is +51
3/10/15; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +54
3/9/15; 11:05 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56
3/9/15; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +56
3/8/15; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +57
3/6/15; 3:39 PM EST = +22; signal line is +58
3/6/15; 3:08 PM EST = +36; signal line is +59
3/6/15; 2:44 PM EST = +22; signal line is +59
3/6/15; 10:42 AM EST = +36; signal line is +59
3/6/15; 9:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +60
3/3/15; 11:33 AM EST = +52; signal line is +60; go short 2104; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +2.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.4%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.8%)

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