STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long after a whipsaw erratic day. The algorithm prints a very rare day where a whipsaw occurs intraday; this has only happened twice over the last seven years for the Keybot program. Markets are unstable. Utilities move strongly higher and are no longer on the algo's radar. The retail and financial stocks were very influential with market direction today. Bears need either RTH under 77.20 and/or XLF under 24.95 to stop the stock market rally. Bulls need VIX under 13.58 to prove they have the beans to take the stock market higher.

Since XLF is only 3 pennies away from 24.95 and VIX only 3 pennies from 13.58, financials and volatility tell the market direction story at the opening bell on Thursday. Bulls win with lower volatility and bears win with lower financials.

If RTH or XLF turn bearish, and the SPX moves under 2052, Keybot will likely flip short. The 2052 is a long way down, however, so bears will focus on lower financials and higher volatility. The SPX begins at 2086; the bulls need to push above 2089 and price will run well into the 2090's.

A wild double flip occurs today. The first trade where the algo went short created a loss of about -1% for both the computer program and the actual trading and the SPX benchmark is flat on the year (SPX began the year at 2059). The bears were happy but as the session continued the bulls fight back and at 3:30 PM flip the algo back to the bull side.

On this six-hour trade, the algo program takes a -1% hit and the actual trading takes a -2% hit. Keybot was in SDS for the short trade but that ended and the algo went into SPY. The algo is now using single ETF's (due to the whipsaw) such as SPY (long) and SH (short) for at least 35 days since the markets are too unstable to use 2x ETF's such as SSO (2x long) and SDS (2x short). For the year, the benchmark SPX index is up +1.4% and the algo program and actual trading are each up +2%. The bulls continue to drive the bus. Watch XLF 24.95 and VIX 13.58 to receive the market direction answer for Thursday.

8/16/15; 7:00 PM EST =

8/14/15; 10:00 AM EST =

8/12/15; 3:30 PM EST = +21; signal line is +10; go long 2087; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.1%; Actual results for 2015 = +2.1%)

8/12/15; 1:02 PM EST = +5; signal line is +9

8/12/15; 12:32 PM EST = -11; signal line is +9

8/12/15; 10:13 AM EST = -25; signal line is +9

8/12/15; 9:36 AM EST = -11; signal line is +10; go short 2064; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +3.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual results for 2015 = +4.2%)

8/11/15; 3:59 PM EST = +21; signal line is +11

8/11/15; 2:13 PM EST = +5; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains long

8/11/15; 11:28 AM EST = +21; signal line is +11

8/11/15; 11:16 AM EST = +5; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains long

8/11/15; 11:12 AM EST = +21; signal line is +12

8/11/15; 10:18 AM EST = +35; signal line is +12

8/11/15; 9:36 AM EST = +19; signal line is +11

8/10/15; 2:53 PM EST = +3; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains long

8/10/15; 2:43 PM EST = +19; signal line is +11

8/10/15; 1:39 PM EST = +3; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains long

8/10/15; 12:21 PM EST = +19; signal line is +10

8/10/15; 11:47 AM EST = +35; signal line is +10

8/10/15; 11:31 AM EST = +19; signal line is +9

8/10/15; 11:21 AM EST = +35; signal line is +8

8/10/15; 11:08 AM EST = +19; signal line is +7

8/10/15; 9:36 AM EST = +35; signal line is +7

8/9/15; 7:00 PM EST = +19; signal line is +7

8/7/15; 3:53 PM EST = +19; signal line is +7; go long 2077; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +3.9%)(Actual results this trade = +1.4%; Actual results for 2015 = +5.4%)