Thursday, March 9, 2017


Keybot the Quant remains on the short side heading into the Thursday session. The algo has not printed any numbers since Tuesday. Retail stocks rallied yesterday so the bears did not receive any additional downside strength. Bears need lower retail stocks and higher volatility. Bulls need higher copper and commodities.

Bears need RTH under 78 and/or VIX above 12.71. Bulls need either JJC above 30.50 and/or GTX above 2367. Bears got nothing without volatility moving higher. VIX 12.71 is a key bull-bear line in the sand. As this message is typed 90 minutes before the opening bell for the regular session, VIX is at 12.00.

For the SPX starting at 2363, the bulls need 10 points to push above 2373 to accelerate the upside. Bears need to push the SPX below 2361, only 2 points lower, to accelerate the downside. A move through 2362-2372 is sideways action for Thursday. S&P futures are down -3.

The ECB rate decision occurs a few minutes ago and it is as expected but more importantly, President Draghi begins speaking in a half hour. Stocks may continue to idle sideways ahead of the all-important US Monthly Jobs Report which will hit the wires this time tomorrow morning. The bears remain in control. Watch VIX 12.71 closely since stocks will tumble lower if it is exceeded.

3/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =
3/10/17; 9:00 AM EST =
3/7/17; 10:17 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90

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