Tuesday, March 28, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today at SPX 2361. This move came out of the blue. The day started uneventfully but then stocks started ramping higher. You saw the VIX fall through the 11.85 level so you knew the rally was in progress. The bulls then pulled copper and retail stocks into the bull camp to pump the stock market higher.

As always, and especially in these erratic markets, stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the short side tomorrow. The market bears need either JJC under 30.43, RTH under 78.16 and/or VIX above 11.85 to stop the rally dead in its track. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, stocks will begin falling in earnest. All three turning bearish and stocks will sink like a stone.

The bulls need to push the banks higher to firmly establish a solid and sustainable relief rally. Bulls must push XLF above 23.94 to receive more upside juice for equities. If banks remain bearish, and copper, retail stocks and volatility remain bullish, stocks will float along sideways with an upward bias.

For hump day with the SPX starting at 2359, the bulls need to touch the 2364 handle and bingo, the S&P 500 will accelerate higher into the 2370's. The bears need to push below 2338 to accelerate the downside.  A move through 2339-2363 is sideways action.

On the last trade, the algorithm program gains almost +1% and is up +1.5% on the year. The actual trading gains +1.4% but remains negative on the year down -1.5%. The benchmark SPX is up +5.5% this year thus far. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO.

4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/31/17; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/17; 3:57 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69; go long 2361; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = -1.5%)
3/28/17; 11:47 AM EST = +54; signal line is +70
3/28/17; 11:41 AM EST = +38; signal line is +72
3/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +73
3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +76
3/21/17; 11:10 AM EST = +24; signal line is +78
3/21/17; 10:59 AM EST = +38; signal line is +81
3/21/17; 10:20 AM EST = +54; signal line is +83
3/21/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +84
3/20/17; 3:55 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains short
3/20/17; 2:53 PM EST = +70; signal line is +85
3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short
3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short
3/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87
3/15/17; 11:31 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87
3/15/17; 11:12 AM EST = +70; signal line is +88
3/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +88
3/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +88
3/10/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +89
3/7/17; 10:17 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90
3/6/17; 1:18 PM EST = +84; signal line is +91
3/6/17; 12:54 PM EST = +70; signal line is +91
3/6/17; 12:07 PM EST = +84; signal line is +92
3/6/17; 11:44 AM EST = +70; signal line is +93
3/6/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +93
3/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains shortt
3/3/17; 3:35 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains short
3/3/17; 9:59 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93; go short 2379; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.9%)

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