Tuesday, July 23, 2019


Keybot the Quant remains short after an active Monday. The model prints 10 numbers yesterday. It is always interesting how the quant may not print any numbers on any given day and then other days it spits out numbers like crazy. The stock market direction is a coin flip as evidenced by the algo number and signal line both at +74. Markets have to make a decision.

Bears need lower copper and higher volatility; CPER below 16.97 and VIX above 14.42, respectively. Bulls need higher commodities; GTX above 2491 to begin the path to more all-time highs.

CPER is at 17.03 and VIX is now trading and printing at the 13.31 palindrome. S&P futures are up +6 about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the Tuesday session. The bears need 6 pennies lower on CPER which represents a -0.4% drop in copper futures. Copper was trading flat until about 50 minutes ago when it quickly dropped to .... wait for it ..... -0.4%.

The battle is with copper and volatility both in the bull camp to begin the day but will they end the day the same? If both parameters remain bullish, and the SPX moves above 2991, Keybot may flip to the long side, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

The SPX begins at 2985 and if a +6 pop occurs at the opening bell the S&P 500 will be at ...... wait for it ....... 2991. If CPER or VIX turn bearish, stocks will begin falling in earnest. Today may be a key pivot day where one side or the other takes strong control.

As mentioned yesterday, the housing market parameter that is programmed into Keybot the Quant has turned bearish after over 7 years in the bull camp. This is important since if it remains negative, which is highly likely, it will prevent Keybot from printing a +100 maximum number going forward. This hints that a significant long-term top may be printing for the US stock market (think months and perhaps years).

7/28/19; 7:00 PM EST =
7/22/19; 11:04 AM EST = +74; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains short
7/22/19; 10:51 AM EST = +60; signal line is +74
7/22/19; 9:47 AM EST = +74; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains short
7/22/19; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +74
7/22/19; 8:28 AM EST = +74; signal line is +75
7/22/19; 8:06 AM EST = +60; signal line is +75
7/22/19; 6:33 AM EST = +74; signal line is +75
7/22/19; 6:15 AM EST = +60; signal line is +75
7/22/19; 4:24 AM EST = +74; signal line is +76
7/22/19; 3:06 AM EST = +60; signal line is +76
7/21/19; 7:00 PM EST = +74; signal line is +76

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