STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side from SPX 3000 since Wednesday, 7/17/19. The algo number, however, is only 2 measly points below the signal line so the bull-bear tug-o-war continues. The S&P 500 prints new all-time highs above SPX 3K in recent days above the 2941 from last Fall. The 2941 will likely be a key support test at some point in the days ahead.

Note that the quant came up to print a few maximum +100 numbers again. This has occurred in clusters a few times over the last 1-1/2 years and represents epic and historic price action in the US stock market. The algorithm is an oscillator so, by definition, it has +100 as its maximum possible reading (uber off-the-charts bullish) and -100 as the minimum possible reading (end-of-the-world bearishness). The stock market is very likely printing a multi-month and perhaps very long-term multi-year top during the last 10 months.

If you are a young person with exposure to the stock market on the long side, think long and hard about what you own. There is no harm in sitting out of the stock market for a year or so to see what happens. After the 1929 crash, the investors that were in cash were in perfect position to buy assets on the cheap and in a few short years were multi-millionaires. Everyone else lost their shirts and spent the next decade crying in their beers.

As an aside, the quant incorporates a housing market indicator, based on ongoing economic data, and on Wednesday, 7/17/19, the model slips into a housing recession signal. The housing recovery began over 7 years ago but this proprietary indicator in the quant hierarchy says the housing party is over.

On the last trade, from June into mid-July, about 6 weeks or so in length, on the long side, the algo program gains +8% and the actual trading gains a big +11% (due to the long QQQ (tech) ETF). Keybot flipped out of QQQ and into QID. The benchmark SPX is up +19.666% this year, call it +20% from 2500-ish to 3000-ish, a 500-point-ish gain this year. The actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up an astounding +30%. Clearly, the Keybot the Quant algorithm is outperforming every quant model on Wall Street as well as most every high-paid strategist and analyst in the financial markets. Keybot is a smart robot.

This message is typed on Sunday evening on the US East Coast. US futures are trading. S&P's are up +1 call it flat. The market can go either way. Very simply, copper, volatility and commodities are the three main parameters currently dictating broad stock market direction.

The stock market bears need weaker copper and/or higher volatility to guarantee lower equities. Bears need CPER under 16.95 (now at 17.17) and/or VIX above 14.53 (now at 14.45). If 1 of the 2 parameters turn bearish, stocks will be in big trouble. If both turn bearish, stocks are going to be falling like rocks.

The stock market bulls need stronger commodities to prove that more upside in equities is on the way. Bulls need GTX above 2495 (now at 2452). The bulls are going to be driving the stock market strongly higher if commodities rally. If GTX flips bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play but the SPX would likely have to move above the 3006-ish level to cause Keybot to flip long.

You can see that the copper and volatility parameters are a game of pennies. Watch copper futures trading overnight since it will give you a heads up about the US stock market. Weaker copper is a huge feather in the bear's cap while strong copper will have the bulls cheering for victory.

VIX is only 8 cents from signaling bigtime stock market trouble. This is the key parameter to watch; VIX 14.53. It will tell you the market direction story ahead. Vol begins trading at 3 AM EST so that will provide a very important heads-up for US trading on Monday. Bears win big if the VIX pops above 14.53 but the bulls will remain very confident below 14.53. The beat goes on.

7/30/19; 10:00 AM EST =

7/28/19; 7:00 PM EST =

7/21/19; 7:00 PM EST = +74; signal line is +76

7/19/19; 10:00 AM EST = +74; signal line is +76

7/17/19; 11:21 AM EST = +74; signal line is +77

7/17/19; 10:43 AM EST = +58; signal line is +77

7/17/19; 10:12 AM EST = +72; signal line is +78; go short 3000; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +19.666%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +7.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +16.2%)(Actual results this trade = +11.0%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +30.4%)

7/17/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long

7/17/19; 9:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long

7/16/19; 1:29 PM EST = +70; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long

7/16/19; 12:41 PM EST = +84; signal line is +77

7/15/19; 12:56 PM EST = +100; signal line is +77

7/15/19; 10:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +76

7/15/19; 10:12 AM EST = +100; signal line is +76

7/15/19; 10:02 AM EST = +84; signal line is +75

7/14/19; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +75

7/12/19; 3:42 PM EST = +100; signal line is +74

7/10/19; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +73

7/10/19; 7:45 AM EST = +70; signal line is +73 but algorithm remains long

7/10/19; 7:03 AM EST = +56; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

7/9/19; 9:39 AM EST = +70; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

7/9/19; 4:13 AM EST = +56; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

7/8/19; 10:43 AM EST = +70; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long
7/8/19; 9:58 AM EST = +84; signal line is +74

7/7/19; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +73 but algorithm remains long
7/5/19; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +73 but algorithm remains long

7/2/19; 9:37 AM EST = +70; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long

7/1/19; 2:54 PM EST = +84; signal line is +71

7/1/19; 2:41 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69

7/1/19; 2:30 PM EST = +84; signal line is +68

7/1/19; 2:16 PM EST = +70; signal line is +67

7/1/19; 1:26 PM EST = +84; signal line is +66

7/1/19; 1:11 PM EST = +70; signal line is +65

7/1/19; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +64
6/30/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +70; signal line is +62

6/28/19; 3:25 PM EST = +70; signal line is +60

6/28/19; 2:42 PM EST = +56; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long

6/28/19; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +57

6/26/19; 10:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +54

6/26/19; 9:55 AM EST = +86; signal line is +53

6/26/19; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +50
6/25/19; 2:24 PM EST = +72; signal line is +47

6/25/19; 1:25 PM EST = +86; signal line is +45

6/25/19; 1:16 PM EST = +72; signal line is +43

6/25/19; 11:19 AM EST = +86; signal line is +40

6/25/19; 10:27 AM EST = +72; signal line is +38

6/25/19; 9:39 AM EST = +86; signal line is +35
6/25/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +31

6/23/19; 7:00 PM EST = +56; signal line is +28

6/21/19; 12:21 PM EST = +56; signal line is +26

6/21/19; 10:49 AM EST = +70; signal line is +23
6/20/19; 3:59 PM EST = +56; signal line is +20

6/20/19; 3:02 PM EST = +70; signal line is +17

6/18/19; 10:02 AM EST = +56; signal line is +14

6/18/19; 9:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +12

6/16/19; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +10
6/14/19; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +8

6/12/19; 9:43 AM EST = +40; signal line is +6

6/10/19; 9:38 AM EST = +56; signal line is +4

6/9/19; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +3

6/7/19; 9:51 AM EST = +40; signal line is +2

6/7/19; 9:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is 0

6/4/19; 3:09 PM EST = +24; signal line is -1

6/4/19; 2:13 PM EST = +8; signal line is -1

6/4/19; 2:04 PM EST = +24; signal line is -2

6/4/19; 1:16 PM EST = +8; signal line is -2

6/4/19; 12:53 PM EST = +24; signal line is -3

6/4/19; 12:45 PM EST = +8; signal line is -3

6/4/19; 12:38 PM EST = -6; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains long

6/4/19; 12:07 PM EST = +8; signal line is -1

6/4/19; 11:48 AM EST = +24; signal line is +1

6/4/19; 11:35 AM EST = +8; signal line is +1; go long 2788; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +11.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.6%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +19.4%)