Thursday, September 19, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips bearish yesterday afternoon at the SPX 2992 palindrome on the palindrome date 91819. The algo turned short just before the big Fed decision and Powell presser. The algo number is only 2 points below the signal line so the bull-bear battle would be expected to continue.

As is the case in recent days, as copper goes, so goes the market. Copper is in the bear camp but only by pennies. Bulls need to move CPER above 16.50 (now at 16.36) or they got nothing. Bears need to keep copper weak. Bulls need a +0.9% move higher in copper futures. Copper is currently trading down -0.1% about 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the regular US Thursday trading session so the bears are smiling.

Bears need VIX above 15.86 to create market mayhem. Note that the VIX spiked to 15.80 yesterday teasing the quant's key level (Keybot is an intelligent robot that tells you these levels before they occur) but then slipped away now trading at 14.27. The failure of volatility to turn bearish created the late-day rally in the US stock market yesterday. S&P futures are down -7 currently. Bears will also benefit from weaker commodities by sending GTX below 2427.

Thus, bulls need higher copper to prove they are in control of the stock market while bears need copper to remain weaker while sending volatility higher and commodities lower.

On the last trade, which ran 2-1/2 weeks, the quant program gains +2.4% and the actual trading logs a +2.8% gain. The actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant this year is up +24.2% with the benchmark S&P 500 index is up nearly +20% after the first 8+ months of the year. The central banker easy money this year creates the market joy. Keybot exits DIA and enters SDS now back into the 2x ETF's since a timer expired after the last whipsaw move a month ago. It will be interesting today to see if the model wants to whipsaw back to the bull side, or not. It all depends on Dr Copper. The beat goes on.

9/22/19; 7:00 PM EST =
9/18/19; 1:29 PM EST = +68; signal line is +70; go short 2992; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +19.4%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.4%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +11.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.8%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +24.2%)
9/18/19; 9:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains long
9/17/19; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains long
9/16/19; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +70
9/15/19; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68
9/13/19; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +65
9/12/19; 11:46 AM EST = +70; signal line is +64
9/11/19; 11:46 AM EST = +54; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
9/11/19; 9:53 AM EST = +68; signal line is +60
9/10/19; 11:52 AM EST = +84; signal line is +58
9/10/19; 11:21 AM EST = +70; signal line is +56
9/10/19; 10:58 AM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
9/10/19; 10:31 AM EST = +68; signal line is +53
9/10/19; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +51
9/10/19; 6:31 AM EST = +84; signal line is +50
9/10/19; 3:35 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48
9/9/19; 2:44 PM EST = +84; signal line is +45
9/9/19; 2:29 PM EST = +70; signal line is +43
9/9/19; 1:52 PM EST = +84; signal line is +40
9/9/19; 1:37 PM EST = +70; signal line is +37
9/9/19; 12:58 PM EST = +84; signal line is +35
9/9/19; 12:33 PM EST = +70; signal line is +32
9/9/19; 11:07 AM EST = +84; signal line is +30
9/8/19; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +28
9/8/19; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +28
9/6/19; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +26
9/6/19; 9:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +23
9/5/19; 12:27 PM EST = +56; signal line is +22
9/5/19; 12:18 PM EST = +70; signal line is +21
9/5/19; 12:09 PM EST = +56; signal line is +18
9/5/19; 11:30 AM EST = +70; signal line is +17
9/5/19; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +15
9/3/19; 3:21 PM EST = +24; signal line is +13
9/3/19; 12:36 PM EST = +8; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains long
9/3/19; 12:20 PM EST = +24; signal line is +10
9/3/19; 12:01 PM EST = +8; signal line is +9 but algorithm remains long
9/3/19; 11:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +8
9/3/19; 11:16 AM EST = +8; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains long
9/3/19; 10:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +9
9/3/19; 10:10 AM EST = +8; signal line is +9 but algorithm remains long
9/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +24; signal line is +9
8/30/19; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +8
8/29/19; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +7; go long 2920; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +21.4%)

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