STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algorithm is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is 2 points below the signal line (bearish) but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. Commodities jump higher this week along with the pop in oil foiling the bears hopes for weakness in the stock market.

The bears will benefit from a slow steady move lower in the stock market. If the SPX drops below 2994, starting the day at 3006 (12 points above), Keybot will likely flip short. S&P futures are down -4 about 7 hours before the opening bell for the Wednesday trading session in the States. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell.

The FOMC Rate Decision and Chairman Powell Press Conference is on tap for Wednesday afternoon so all bets are off until King Jerome brings the tablets down from on high and tells global traders how to trade. The central bankers are the market.

A gap-down move at the opening bell will not be good for bears. Bears simply need to march stocks lower slowly, keeping copper in the bear camp, and send the SPX sub 2994 to flip the model short.

The stock market bulls need to keep the SPX above 2994 on hump day and they will be fine. As copper goes, so goes the market. Bulls need CPER above 16.50 (now at 16.44) so it continues to be a game of pennies. Bulls need about a +0.4% pop in copper to bring it back into the bull camp and create stock market upside. Copper futures are currently up +0.2%.

Thus, the imminent turn to the short side is in play. Bears need SPX below 2994 to flip the model short while bears need CPER above 16.50 to restart the stock market upside. King Powell may have to tell his story this afternoon before stocks commit one way or the other.

The Housing Starts data are uber important this morning. The Keybot the Quant algorithm has called the start of a housing recession in July and this morning will determine if this projection and forecast remains in play.

9/22/19; 7:00 PM EST =

9/18/19; 9:00 AM EST =

9/17/19; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains long

9/16/19; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +70
9/15/19; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68