Tuesday, February 25, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side on Monday at SPX 3229. The chips and the banks fail creating market mayhem. The SPX crashes 112 points, -3.4%, to 3226. That beating will leave a mark. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 13 points below the signal line (not as much as you would think so the caution flag remains out).

Bears need weaker retail stocks to keep the negativity going. Bulls need either chips or banks to recover to create market stability and the start of a relief rally. Bears need RTH below 122.34. Bulls need SOX above 1856 and/or XLF above 30.51. One of these Three Stooges will flinch and light the path ahead. If status quo remains with happy retail stocks and sad semi's and banks, stocks will chop sideways.

On the last trade, that ran for 3 weeks, the quant program and actual trading each lose a couple percent. The benchmark SPX gives up all the 2020 joy and turns negative on the year now down -0.1% after the first 2 months. The Keybot the Quant program is down a percent on the year but the actual trading generated by the quant remains up nicely with a +6.2% gain thus far in 2020. Keybot exits SPY and enters PSQ.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning and on Friday morning. The EOM is on Friday. March trading begins Monday, 3/2/20. The beat goes on.

3/8/20; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/20; 9:00 AM EST =
3/1/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/28/20; 10:00 AM EST =
2/25/20; 10:00 AM EST =
2/24/20; 12:10 PM EST = +24; signal line is +37; go short 3229; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -0.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2020 = -1.1%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.6%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +6.2%)
2/24/20; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
2/23/20; 7:00 PM EST = +56; signal line is +38
2/19/20; 9:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +38
2/18/20; 3:06 AM EST = +56; signal line is +38
2/16/20; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +36
2/14/20; 3:59 PM EST = +70; signal line is +34
2/14/20; 10:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +33
2/9/20; 7:00 PM EST = +56; signal line is +31
2/7/20; 9:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +30
2/4/20; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +29; go long 3288; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +0.7%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +7.8%)

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