Keybot the Quant remains long with the US Monthly Jobs Report on tap in a few hours at 8:30 AM EST. The VIX is at 15.12 and S&P futures are -2. Copper tanks -1%. The quant has not printed a number since it flipped long on Tuesday morning.
The battle for stock market directional control is volatility and copper in the bear camp versus chips and banks in the bull camp. One of these four will flinch, perhaps this morning after the jobs report is known, and that will light the path forward.
Bulls need VIX below 13.84 and CPER above 16.91. The VIX 200-day MA can be used as an initial signal line and it sits at 15.12 exactly where price is now. After the jobs report, if the VIX falls below 15 and tracks lower, a run at the 13.84 bull-bear line in the sand is on tap which will determine the fate of stocks going forward. Obviously, if the VIX jumps higher above 15.12, the stock market will be selling off. Copper is negative this morning so the bull's hopes to pump copper higher to help the stock market appear formidable.
Bears need XLF below 30.29 and SOX below 1831. Looking at current prices, these bull-bear lines in the sand are about 2% to 3% above so the bears have their work cut out for them as well.
Volatility and banks are what matter. VIX 15.12, VIX 13.84, and XLF 30.29 tell you everything you need to know about stock market direction for the Friday session. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell.
2/9/20; 7:00 PM EST =
2/7/20; 9:00 AM EST =
2/4/20; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +29; go long 3288; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +0.7%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +7.8%)
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