Wednesday, April 8, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market volatility continues. The quant was champing at the bit to go long yesterday but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move and then equities fell apart in the afternoon. The bears continue slapping the bulls around with the algo number 18 points below the signal line. The algo has been quiet in recent days simply idling happily along in the bear camp but yesterday went crazy spitting out nine numbers and threatening to go long.

The bulls are trying to goose semiconductors to create a catalyst to pump the broad stock market higher. At the same time, the bulls are also trying to elevate retail stocks to boost the floundering stock market. Bulls need SOX above 1604 and/or RTH above 110.20. If both parameters turn bullish, and the SPX runs above 2756, Keybot will likely flip long. If one parameter is bullish, and you see it jogging back and forth along the number listed, that is telling you that it is ready to commit to the bull side and a relief rally for equities is likely going forward near term. It is probably unlikely that the robot will flip long today since the SPX likely has to gain about 90 points. However, if several parameters flip long, that may cause the algo to flip long; use the SOX and RTH as the guide. If both flip long that tells you the upside is uber strong for stocks going forward.

If SOX and RTH remain in the bear camp, the stock market remains toast. Crispy-fried.

Stocks are typically bullish through the full moon which occurred last evening, and futures are up, and equities are typically buoyant the two days in front of a three-day holiday weekend. US stocks trade today (hump day) and tomorrow (Thursday) and then will not trade again until after Easter on Monday 4/13/20. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

If you are a bull and eating franks and beans over the last month, you need to root for higher chips and retail stocks. If the chips are down, and the retail stocks are sporting a frown, well, you need to buy more cans of beans on your next trip to town. Bears need to keep hammering at the daily lows. Yesterday LOD is 2657, only a couple points below the opening price at 2659. S&P futures are catching the strong full moon bid now up +24 about 2 hours before the opening bell.

4/9/20; 10:00 AM EST =
4/7/20; 3:56 PM EST = -66; signal line is -48
4/7/20; 3:46 PM EST = -50; signal line is -47
4/7/20; 2:48 PM EST = -66; signal line is -47
4/7/20; 2:41 PM EST = -50; signal line is -46
4/7/20; 11:12 AM EST = -34; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains short
4/7/20; 10:46 AM EST = -50; signal line is -45
4/7/20; 10:32 AM EST = -34; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains short
4/7/20; 10:21 AM EST = -50; signal line is -43
4/7/20; 9:36 AM EST = -34; signal line is -41 but algorithm remains short
4/5/20; 7:00 PM EST = -66; signal line is -41

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