STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the erratic stock market action continues. Keybot is champing at the bit to go short as evidenced by the algo number 4 points below the signal line, however, the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. To keep things simple, and give you something to watch, if the S&P 500, starting at 2863, slips below 2861, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. This is only 2 negative points but the S&P futures are up +21 points about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the regular US trading session.

Bears simply need the SPX below 2861 and the quant will likely flip short. The best thing for bears is to see a gradual slippage all session long and then once price falls below 2861, equities should begin dropping like rocks. Bears need weaker chips. It sounds like it is a broken record but any downside in the stock market will have zero legs unless the semiconductors weaken. Bears need SOX below 1650 (now at 1713) or they got buptkis going forward.

Bulls need to prevent SPX 2861 and lower from printing at all costs. This is a line in the sand today. At the same time, bulls need lower volatility and stronger copper and banks. Bulls need the VIX to drop below 30.58 (now 32.666), CPER above 14.90 (now at 14.78) and XLF above 23.26 (now at 22.72). Banks popped yesterday and then puked so they may not have much gusto available. Copper has been battling at the key bull-bear line in the sand all week long. Bulls need about a +0.8% pop in copper futures which are currently trading up +0.3% so bulls have more work to do there. The VIX can easily drop a couple handles in a heartbeat, now at 32.55 so keep an eye on volatility.

Summing up all that mumbo-jumbo, bears win going forward and the quant will likely flip short if SPX loses 2861. If SOX loses 1650, the stock market will quickly fall apart.

Bulls win going forward if 2861 does not print today. If VIX drops below 30.58, and/or copper futures pop +0.8% (now up +0.3%), either one will do, the stock market will run strongly higher. If both turn bullish, stocks will catapult higher and a party atmosphere will take hold.

Keybot prints the EOM pre-scheduled number tomorrow evening and May trading begins Friday morning. The US Monthly Jobs Report is next Friday, 5/8/20. Okay, bears, you have it on a silver platter. Do you want it?

5/3/20; 7:00 PM EST =

4/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

4/28/20; 1:11 PM EST = -53; signal line is -49 but algorithm remains long

4/28/20; 12:46 PM EST = -37; signal line is -49

4/28/20; 11:09 AM EST = -53; signal line is -49 but algorithm remains long

4/28/20; 10:00 AM EST = -37; signal line is -48

4/27/20; 3:59 PM EST = -28; signal line is -49
4/26/20; 7:00 PM EST = -44; signal line is -49

4/24/20; 10:00 AM EST = -44; signal line is -50