Monday, May 4, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short on Friday morning at SPX 2855. The stock market (SPX) mini-crashed to end the week losing nearly -3% during the Friday session. The banks and copper failed last week creating the market turmoil. Chips also weaken which sent the overall stock market lower.

The bulls need stronger copper to regain the upper hand. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 9 points below the signal line. Bears must pull the semiconductors and retail stocks into their camp to create further stock market selling.

Bulls need CPER above 14.90 (now at 14.55) which represents a +2.4% increase in copper futures, however, copper is currently trading down -0.8%.

Bears need SOX below 1639 (now at 1644) and/or RTH below 114 (now at 116). Either parameter failing into the bear camp will create another down leg in stocks. The stock market will take a big dive lower if both parameters fail. If copper remains in the bear camp, and chips and retail stocks remain in the bull camp, status quo, stocks will chop along sideways with a slight downward bias.

On the last trade that ran for 7 trading days, the Keybot algorithm and the actual trading each gain a couple percent. The S&P 500 benchmark index is down -12% on the year. The actual trading generated by the quant is down -2% on the year thus far. Keybot exited QQQ and entered PSQ remaining in 1x ETF's due to the current whipsaw nature of markets.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning before the opening bell for the regular session. S&P futures are down -13 points 6-1/2 hours before the regular Monday trading session in the states. Copper, chips and retail stocks are controlling stock market direction currently.

5/10/20; 7:00 PM EST =
5/8/20; 9:00 AM EST =
5/3/20; 7:00 PM EST = -53; signal line is -44
5/1/20; 9:41 AM EST = -53; signal line is -44; go short 2855; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -11.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +3.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = +2.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = -1.7%)
5/1/20; 9:36 AM EST = -53; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains long
4/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -37; signal line is -44
4/30/20; 2:31 PM EST = -37; signal line is -44
4/30/20; 12:35 PM EST = -53; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains long
4/30/20; 9:36 AM EST = -37; signal line is -45
4/29/20; 10:53 AM EST = -21; signal line is -45
4/29/20; 10:09 AM EST = -37; signal line is -47
4/29/20; 9:50 AM EST = -21; signal line is -47
4/28/20; 3:31 PM EST = -37; signal line is -49
4/28/20; 1:11 PM EST = -53; signal line is -49 but algorithm remains long
4/28/20; 12:46 PM EST = -37; signal line is -49
4/28/20; 11:09 AM EST = -53; signal line is -49 but algorithm remains long
4/28/20; 10:00 AM EST = -37; signal line is -48
4/27/20; 3:59 PM EST = -28; signal line is -49
4/26/20; 7:00 PM EST = -44; signal line is -49
4/24/20; 10:00 AM EST = -44; signal line is -50
4/22/20; 12:42 PM EST = -44; signal line is -51; go long 2798; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -13.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +1.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = -3.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = -3.9%)

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