The bulls win if they push the SPX above 2989 (now at 2949). Thus, 40 handles of upside and the stock market will then accelerate higher like a rocket ship.
The bears need weaker copper and higher volatility to turn the stock market south. Bears need CPER below 14.95 (now at 15.31). This represents a -2.4% drop in copper futures. Interestingly, copper is currently trading down -2.1% about 4 hours before the opening bell for the regular US trading session. Keep pushing bears; you are almost there. Bears need the VIX above 33.26 (now at 30.55) which will immediately create notable stock market weakness.
It's a straightforward path ahead. If the SPX moves above 2989, the stock market is headed to new record highs. If CPER falls below 14.95, and/or the VIX moves above 33.26, either one will do, the upside rally in equities is over immediately, and stocks will begin to languish and weaken. If both parameters turn bearish, Keybot will likely flip short. The caution flag is out since copper is crumbling this morning.
If the SPX remains below 2989, CPER above 14.95 and the VIX below 33.26, status quo, stocks will bump along sideways until one of these parameters flinch.
If the SPX remains below 2989, CPER above 14.95 and the VIX below 33.26, status quo, stocks will bump along sideways until one of these parameters flinch.
US markets are closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. The table is set. Into the holiday weekend, the bulls are hoping to jam the S&P 500 higher since higher prices are going to lead to higher prices. Bears are beating Dr Copper into unconsciousness with a baseball bat while at the same time trying to release the VIX beachball from under the water where it is held down by the Federal Reserve and other global central bankers.
5/24/20;
7:00 PM EST =
5/19/20;
9:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -44
5/18/20;
9:36 AM EST = -23; signal line is -45
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