STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The stock market bounced strongly yesterday but faded into the closing bell. Status quo. Copper is in the bear camp and chips and retail stocks (think AMZN) are in the bull camp. Markets chop sideways perhaps waiting for the Friday morning US Monthly Jobs Report circus which will show Depression-level unemployment.

The quant was active on Monday printing 4 numbers with the bears remaining in control. Stock market direction is currently controlled by copper, volatility and semiconductors.

Bears need weaker chips. Bears need SOX below 1640 (now at 1690) to start wreaking market havoc. As long as the bulls keep the semi's in their camp, the bears got nothing.

Bulls need stronger copper and lower volatility. Bulls need CPER above 14.85 (now at 14.76) and VIX below 31.80 (now at 32.40). VIX is trading now on hump day morning trending slightly lower. The VIX is only a whisker away from rewarding the bulls with a euphoric big-time rally. The move higher in CPER corresponds to a +0.6% increase in copper futures which are currently trading up +0.8%. The bulls will flip copper bullish and set up the quant to go long if this pattern remains in place for the next 4 or 5 hours (into the US opening bell for the regular trading session). 

If CPER moves above 14.85, or VIX below 31.80, either parameter will do, and if the SPX moves above 2898, trending higher, starting the session at 2868, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. S&P futures were up nearly +30 a couple hours ago and are currently up +22. Thus, you see that the bulls want to spike copper to give the stock market enough oomph that the S&P 500 will move above 2898, call it 29 hundo, which will light the afterburners. The VIX would then surely drop sub 31.80 further igniting the afterburners sending the stock market into bullish ecstasy. For today, to stop this bullish outcome, the bears simply have to prevent copper from moving higher, prevent volatility from moving any lower and above all prevent the SPX from overtaking 2898. The beat goes on.

5/10/20; 7:00 PM EST =

5/8/20; 9:00 AM EST =

5/4/20; 3:12 PM EST = -53; signal line is -46

5/4/20; 12:38 PM EST = -69; signal line is -45

5/4/20; 9:53 AM EST = -53; signal line is -44

5/4/20; 9:36 AM EST = -69; signal line is -45

5/3/20; 7:00 PM EST = -53; signal line is -44