STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side in the Tuesday session just before munch time at SPX 3242. The utilities jump into the bull camp providing lift to the stock indexes and the NYA index remains buoyant. The stock market is a coin-flip right now. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will bring the tablets down from on high today at 2 PM EST and tell global traders how to trade. Pope Powell's press conference will run from 2:30 PM EST to 3:30 PM EST so expect a lot of market gyrations this afternoon.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number only a paltry 4 points above the signal line; that's nothing. Note how the model is walking a tightrope when short it kept dipping a toe on the long side and now that it is long the quant was champing at the bit twice yesterday afternoon to flip back to the short side. Hence, stay on guard, there may be something epic ahead.

The stock market direction is currently dictated by the utilities, NYA index and you can sprinkle some banks on top. Bulls need UTIL above 835.50 (now at 825.47) and the stock market will be in its glory days printing new lofty price highs.

Bears need UTIL below 823.98 pronto (now at 825.47) to create stock market negativity. Bulls are happy as long as UTIL remains above 824 this week. Next week the key UTIL number will be 795 so the bears have their work cut out for them. If UTIL begins dropping, through 824, and trending lower towards 800 by the end of this week and then in the 700's next week, that spells serious trouble for the US stock market going into year end. If bulls keep UTIL above 824 this week into next week, even if they remain above 8 hundo beginning next week for a few weeks, they are fine and the prospects for stocks into year end will be rosier.

Bears need the NYA index to fall below 12453 (now at 12491) and all Hades will break loose in markets. If NYA gives up 12453, the stock market will probably begin falling like a rock. Weak banks will also help the bears; they need XLF below 23.58.

Thus, bulls win with status quo or UTIL above 835.50. Bears win with UTIL below 824 and/or NYA below 12453. This is all you need to know for today. If UTIL or NYA turn bearish, either one would do, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side. Hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The market is a crap-shoot right now. Choose your poison.

The last trade ran for 13 trading hours but does not meet the whipsaw criteria for the robot so, for now, the quant remains in the 2x leveraged ETF's. The price action hints that there may be a sideways chop for a few days and that makes chop suey out of bulls and bears alike and especially those holding leveraged ETF's. The algo program loses a percent on the last trade and the actual trading dumps -3.3% bludgeoned by the enduring strength in tech stocks. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, the US stock market, turns positive by a hair. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +25% on the year and the actual trading generated by the robot is up over +34%. Keybot exits QID and enters SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's. If the turn would have occurred 2 or 3 hours sooner, then Keybot would probably be in a non-leveraged 1x ETF right now instead. Stay on guard, there may be crazy times ahead, as Patsy would croon.

8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

7/31/20; 10:00 AM EST =

7/28/20; 3:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +49

7/28/20; 3:48 PM EST = +37; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long

7/28/20; 12:45 PM EST = +53; signal line is +48

7/28/20; 12:35 PM EST = +37; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long

7/28/20; 11:42 AM EST = +53; signal line is +47; go long 3242; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +24.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = -3.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +34.1%)

7/28/20; 10:22 AM EST = +53; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains short

7/28/20; 10:00 AM EST = +37; signal line is +47

7/27/20; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +46

7/26/20; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +46

7/24/20; 12:54 PM EST = +26; signal line is +47

7/24/20; 12:39 PM EST = +42; signal line is +47

7/24/20; 12:08 PM EST = +26; signal line is +47; go short 3213; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +25.8%)(Actual trading results this trade = +10.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +37.4%)