STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side after the opening bell yesterday at SPX 3059. The bulls slap around the bears like a kitten playing with a ball of yarn. The bears were on the verge of stock market failure at SPX 3002 only 2 days ago but instead the bulls pump the S&P 500 one hundo points higher to 3100. The bulls are in control but the erratic and unstable price action continues and the algo number is only 8 points above the signal line.

Bears need weaker utilities and higher volatility neither of which are cooperating this week, however, utes are of great interest these days. Bears need UTIL below 758 by tomorrow's close, and through next week, to create stock market negativity. The caution flag is out. Bears may simply try to limp into the holiday weekend maintaining flat equities. Today may be a flat day ahead of the jobs report tomorrow. Bears likely need the VIX above 38 and SPX below 3050 to flip short, which seems unlikely, but you really never know these days what will happen next.

Despite the bullish euphoria to begin the week, the banks could not hold their breakout level. XLF 23.24 is the bull-bear line in the sand. Yesterday the XLF tagged 23.30 but closed at 23.14 with the quant's numbers, that have been forecasted the last couple days, right in the middle. Isn't that impressive? Banks and commodities determine if the bulls have further legs higher. Bulls need XLF above 23.24 which is only a dime higher. Watch this closely since it will tell you what the stock market does today. Ditto GTX 1677. GTX is at 1651 on the bear side and a move above 1677 will pop the US stock market higher. Bulls need XLF 23.24 and/or GTX 1677 to keep the upside party in equities going strong. If stocks rally but neither of these two parameters flip bullish, stocks will roll over lower.

Today is the first day of trading in July, the first day of the month, Q3 and H2. The US Monthly Jobs Report is on tap tomorrow morning released a day early since markets are closed on Friday to celebrate the Independence Day holiday on Saturday.

On the last trade, which ran for a week, the quant program gains a smidgeon but the actual trading loses a smidge. The S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, is down -5.3% thus far this year. The Keybot the Quant program is up +21% on the year and the actual trading is up +27% thus far this year. Keybot flips out of SDS and into SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's. Note that the stock market dropped a little on the last trade as the model predicted, but SDS did not go up as would be expected, and instead logged a small loss during the same period. You see this often with leveraged ETF's when the time period is moving flattish.

So the bulls have the ball again but their legs are shaky as they hobble down field. Watch the banks and commodities. Bulls need XLF above 23.24 to signal the all-clear for upside joy. XLF is trading down a hair in the pre-market at 23.13. Bulls need to eat their spinach like Popeye if they want to lift stocks higher.

7/5/20; 7:00 PM EST =
7/2/20; 9:00 AM EST =

6/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +12; signal line is +4

6/30/20; 10:00 AM EST = +12; signal line is +3

6/30/20; 9:37 AM EST = +7; signal line is +1; go long 3059; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -5.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +20.8%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +27.1%)

6/29/20; 9:36 AM EST = +7; signal line is 0 but algorithm remains short
6/28/20; 7:00 PM EST = -9; signal line is -2

6/26/20; 10:26 AM EST = -9; signal line is -2

6/26/20; 10:06 AM EST = +7; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short

6/26/20; 10:00 AM EST = -9; signal line is -3
6/26/20; 9:36 AM EST = -9; signal line is -4

6/25/20; 2:52 PM EST = +7; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short

6/25/20; 1:27 PM EST = -9; signal line is -5

6/25/20; 12:47 PM EST = +7; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short

6/25/20; 10:42 AM EST = -9; signal line is -4

6/25/20; 10:19 AM EST = +7; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short

6/25/20; 9:37 AM EST = -9; signal line is -4

6/24/20; 2:12 PM EST = +7; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short

6/24/20; 1:30 PM EST = +-9; signal line is -5

6/24/20; 12:49 PM EST = +7; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short

6/24/20; 11:28 AM EST = -9; signal line is -5; go short 3069; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -5.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +20.5%)(Actual trading results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +27.4%)