Friday, September 25, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long from SPX 3248 after one of the wildest days in the quant's history. A double whipsaw has occurred rarely with the algorithm but yesterday is a triple whipsaw that has never occurred. The model flipped long at munch time, then short in the afternoon then back to long before the session ended. Comically, S&P futures are down -26 about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the Friday session.

The imminent turn notation is in the title line because it is a wild mystery as to what will happen. Stock market parameters are bouncing around in all directions creating unprecedented price action. Copper is teetering on the bull-bear line in the sand and is down -0.6% in the futures so that will be a failure at the open creating negativity.

Bulls need stronger copper, retail stocks, commodities and lower volatility. Bears need weaker copper, utilities and chips. There ae a lot of moving parts currently. Watch the NYA 12306 bull-bear line in the sand. NYA is at 12366. The stock market is in big trouble if NYA 12306 fails. If stocks sell off, which appears to be on the agenda for the open, watch NYA 12306. If it fails, it's light's out. If the NYA holds the 12306 support, stocks will probably recover and rally.

The algo has logged five losing trades in a row for the actual trading which has never happened in Keybot's history. The losses are all nominal except for that first one. The quant has cycled through SPY, SH, DIA, DOG and currently in IWM (long, short, long, short, long, respectively). For the year, the S&P 500 which is the US stock market, is flat. The quant program is up about -21% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +39% in 2020 thus far. Keybot remains in the single 1x ETF's due to the whipsaw behavior in the price action. These choppy sawtooth markets chew up bulls and bears alike.

Keybot the Quant may whipsaw back to the short side today. The stock market is a coin-flip. Climb aboard the Crazy Train.

9/27/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/24/20; 3:52 PM EST = -10; signal line is -24; go long 3248; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +20.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +38.5%)
9/24/20; 3:45 PM EST = -26; signal line is -23
9/24/20; 3:44 PM EST = -42; signal line is -21
9/24/20; 3:28 PM EST = -58; signal line is -19
9/24/20; 3:26 PM EST = -42; signal line is -17; go short 3233; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +21.4%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.6%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +38.8%)
9/24/20; 2:54 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16
9/24/20; 1:06 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18
9/24/20; 12:13 PM EST = -10; signal line is -19; go long 3258; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +22.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +39.4%)
9/24/20; 11:51 AM EST = -26; signal line is -20
9/24/20; 11:29 AM EST = -42; signal line is -20
9/24/20; 10:51 AM EST = -56; signal line is -20
9/24/20; 10:37 AM EST = -72; signal line is -19
9/24/20; 10:36 AM EST = -56; signal line is -18
9/24/20; 10:06 AM EST = -42; signal line is -17
9/24/20; 9:46 AM EST = -56; signal line is -14
9/24/20; 9:40 AM EST = -72; signal line is -11
9/23/20; 3:10 PM EST = -58; signal line is -7
9/23/20; 3:08 PM EST = -42; signal line is -5
9/23/20; 2:49 PM EST = -26; signal line is -3; go short 3254; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +22.3%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.7%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +39.6%)

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