Wednesday, September 16, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the  long side this afternoon at SPX 3429. Fed Chairman Powell promises easy money forever. The algo wanted to flip long at the start of trading and commodities turn bullish providing more upside fuel. It was not until the afternoon, however, when all the internal parameters latched that the move ot the long side occurs. Humorously, the SPX then promptly fell on its sword collapsing into the closing bell.

Commodities, volatility and utilities are running the show. Bulls need UTIL above 827 to guarantee upside happiness for stocks. UTIL is at 815. For next week, the 827 does not matter but 793 does. Thus, the bears have to push utes lower over the next couple days below UTIL 793 to prove that they can send stocks lower next week.

Bears need VIX above 27.54 which will tell you loud and clear that the downside is occurring in equities. Bears also need weaker commodities; GTX below 1720.

On the last trade that ran for 2 weeks, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains about +8%. For the year, the S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, SPX, is up +6.1%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +29% and the actual trading, generated by Keybot, is up a huge +51%. Let's see if the robot gives anything back during the final 3-1/2 months. Keybot exits QID and enters SSO.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning before the opening bell. As always, watch for a potential whipsaw. 

9/18/20; 10:00 AM EST =
9/17/20; 9:00 AM EST =
9/16/20; 2:40 PM EST = +34; signal line is +19; go long 3429; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.3%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +29.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = +8.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +51.0%)
9/16/20; 10:07 AM EST = +34; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
9/15/20; 12:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short
9/15/20; 10:09 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
9/13/20; 7:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is +21
9/11/20; 3:25 PM EST = +20; signal line is +23
9/11/20; 3:06 PM EST = +4; signal line is +24
9/11/20; 2:38 PM EST = +20; signal line is +26
9/11/20; 2:20 PM EST = +4; signal line is +27
9/11/20; 1:09 PM EST = -10; signal line is +29
9/11/20; 10:26 AM EST = +20; signal line is +31
9/11/20; 10:02 AM EST = +6; signal line is +33
9/11/20; 9:51 AM EST = +20; signal line is +35
9/10/20; 1:45 PM EST = +6; signal line is +36
9/10/20; 1:25 PM EST = +20; signal line is +38
9/10/20; 10:51 AM EST = +6; signal line is +40
9/10/20; 10:43 AM EST = +20; signal line is +42
9/10/20; 10:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is +43
9/10/20; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +44
9/10/20; 9:07 AM EST = +36; signal line is +46
9/9/20; 9:38 AM EST = +22; signal line is +46
9/9/20; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +46
9/8/20; 2:42 PM EST = -10; signal line is +47
9/8/20; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +49
9/6/20; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +51
9/4/20; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +51
9/3/20; 11:11 AM EST = +36; signal line is +52
9/3/20; 10:50 AM EST = +50; signal line is +52; go short 3511; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +8.666%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.7%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +26.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = +15.9%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +42.8%)

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