Tuesday, February 23, 2021


Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is 1 point below the signal line so the robot is in position to flip short as long as all the internal parameters latch after the opening bell. If the SPX drops below 3875, Keybot will likely flip short. S&P futures are down -14 with the VIX at 24.53.

VIX 24.17 is the bull/bear line in the sand. It tells you the market story today. The bulls need VIX below 24.17 to regain control of the stock market. Bears win big if the VIX remains above 24.17.

Bears need weaker retail stocks and HD just laid an earnings egg (price down). Bears need RTH below 159.80 and price is only 34 pennies away. RTH turning bearish will guarantee sustainable bearishness ahead.

Did you see the high drama with utilities yesterday? UTIL falls to test the critical 821.50 support, but bounces. The stock market could have crashed if it had failed and this is back on the table today. Expect at least a significant leg lower in stocks if UTIL 821.50 fails.

Bulls need lower volatility. Bears need SPX below 3875 to flip the model short which is on tap in the futures. A gap-down is not good for bears since it may trigger a timer that will not allow the quant to flip bearish for about 90 minutes.

It looks good for bears but Fed Chairman Powell speaks in a couple hours and he just picked-up his dove suit at the cleaners. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM EST.

2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 4:03 AM EST = +50; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
2/22/21; 8:39 AM EST = +64; signal line is +50
2/22/21; 7:35 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48
2/22/21; 3:58 AM EST = +64; signal line is +47

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