Thursday, February 4, 2021


Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 23 points above the signal line. The quant has been active this week so something may be going on. The bulls came to play pumping copper and smashing volatility sending stocks higher.

The bulls are flexing their muscles but to prove they can take stocks higher they must push UTIL above 894 (now at 860) a formidable task.

Bears need higher volatility, lower copper, lower retail stocks, lower banks and lower chips. Bears need VIX above 24.96 (now trading at 23.14) with S&P futures up +3. Futures and vol are higher so one of them is wrong (either futures drop to prove volatility correct or vol drops to prove futures correct). Bears need CPER below 21.76 (now at 21.99). Bears need a -1.1% drop in copper futures but copper is sitting flat.

Bears likely need both vol and copper to turn bearish, and that can easily happen since the numbers are dancing near the bull-bear lines in the sand, and for the SPX to drop below 3817, for Keybot the Quant to flip short. If either parameter turns bearish, consider the imminent turn notation to be in the title line.

The SPX begins the Thursday session at 3830. The 3848 is an important resistance level which would tell you that the bulls have legs. Watch copper and vol; they will tell you what you need to know.

2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/3/21; 10:47 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 10:32 AM EST = +38; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 3:06 AM EST = +36; signal line is +29
2/2/21; 1:04 PM EST = +22; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long

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