STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 5899 at the 10:01 AM EST palindrome on Friday morning. The robot was in position to go short anytime this week but it took a while for the internal parameters to set up correctly to trigger the move. The algo number is only 2 measly points below the signal line so the bears have more work to do to prove that they can take the stock market lower.

In a nutshell, chips, copper and commodities took the pipe creating market angst. Utes and volatility remain in the bull camp trying to keep stocks buoyant.

UTIL dropped to the critical 1018 line in the sand but the bulls bounced it. VIX ran higher to the critical 17.55 line in the sand but the bulls pushed it back down. The quant is an octopus with tentacles reaching out and tapping lines in the sand to determine the direction of the stock market.

For the week ahead, the UTIL 1018 number is meaningless and replaced with 997 for the whole week and the week after, with the Thanksgiving Day holiday, the 997 will be meaningless and replaced with 1004. UTIL was pumped to 1034 last week to stave off the bears but watch the 997-1004 level the rest of the month because if price fails into this range, there will be Hell to pay in the stock market.

In addition to UTIL 997, bears need VIX above 17.55 to increase the selling pressure.

The bulls need stronger chips, copper and commodities and to push SOX above 5152, CPER above 27.30 and/or GTX above 3565, respectively, and each may prove to be a difficult task.

Boiling it down to something simple, watch chips and volatility. If VIX pops above 17.55, stocks are going to drop like rocks. If SOX pops above 5152, the bulls are back in business, will stabilize the stock market, and start thinking about moving higher again.

On the last trade that ran for about 2 weeks, the quant program gains about +3% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains about +6%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up a humongous +24%. Wowza. The quant algorithm program is up about +11% on the year thus far and the actual trading is up +19% now within 5 percentage-points of the benchmark with 6 weeks remaining in the year, but no one is complaining about a +19% return. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

Bears need higher volatility and weaker utilities and retail stocks. Bulls need stronger chips, copper and commodities (three weak signs that growth is not as great as people are hyping and if rates are on the rise that is a signal of fear of the growing debt in government and society and not a sign of a robust US and global economy ahead).

11/17/24; 7:00 PM EST =
11/15/24; 10:01 AM EST = +18; signal line is +20; go short 5899; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +23.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +10.6%)(Actual results this trade = +5.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +19.2%)
11/15/24; 9:41 AM EST = +18; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
11/14/24; 3:58 PM EST = +2; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
11/11/24; 11:12 AM EST = +18; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/11/24; 10:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +22
11/11/24; 9:55 AM EST = +18; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/10/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +22
11/8/24; 10:11 AM EST = +34; signal line is +21
11/8/24; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +21
11/8/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +20
11/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +20
11/6/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +19
11/6/24; 3:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +18
11/4/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +17
11/3/24; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 1:30 PM EST = +4; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 12:09 PM EST = +20; signal line is +18
11/1/24; 11:52 AM EST = +4; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 11:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +19
11/1/24; 10:28 AM EST = +4; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 10:26 AM EST = +20; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +20; go long 5736; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.1%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +7.8%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +13.7%)