Keybot the Quant remains long as the cat and mouse game with copper and commodities continues. According to the quant, the only metrics that matter to stock market direction currently are copper, commodities, utilities, chips and volatility, in that order of importance. Everything else is noise.
You can see that the bulls lose ground with the algo number only 13 points above the signal line. Copper and commodities failed on Friday creating the drop. For the bulls to continue the rally, they must push CPER back above 27.40 and/or GTX above 3573. Both will be needed if bulls expect to run stocks far higher. If both or one remain in the bear camp, stocks will not make much headway higher. Bulls will need a +1.1% gain in copper futures overnight Sunday into Monday morning if they want to maintain buoyancy in the stock market.
Utilities are back in play. UTIL 1018.46 is the bull/bear line in the sand for all of the week ahead. If this would have failed before Friday's close, the bears would be singing songs of joy all weekend long. Alas, the bulls know that they have to keep utes buoyant if they want stocks to go up so they goosed UTIL up to 1032 to end last week. That keeps the bears at bay, for now. If UTIL loses 1018, and the SPX drops below 5977, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.
The bulls have the chips and volatility in their camp creating the upside orgy. Bears must pull SOX below 5143 and/or push VIX above 17.43 to start a significant pullback in stocks.
Thus, bears need weaker utes and they are in clover. Weaker semiconductors or higher volatility will also bolster the bear case and begin a soggy path ahead for stocks. The bulls must hold the line here, and they did with pumping the utilities on Friday, but to continue the vertical rally, they need stronger copper and commodities. Easy-peasy.
Keybot prints the Sunday pre-scheduled number tomorrow.
11/10/24;
7:00 PM EST =
11/8/24;
10:11 AM EST = +34; signal line is +21
11/8/24;
10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +21
11/8/24;
9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +20
11/7/24;
9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +20
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