STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market with the algo number 10 points above the signal line. The US stock market is a knock-down, drag-out fight between the bulls and the bears trading punches during the hump day session.

It is all about the chips. No, not those chips; the semiconductors. They failed just before munchtime but recovered, then failed, then recovered, then failed, you get the picture. Watch the SOX 5567 bull/bear line in the sand.

If bulls keep SOX above 5567, the easy street upside rally for equities will continue with the Fed wine flowing like water. If bears push the SOX below 5567, you will notice a serious deterioration in the stock market and the potential path to blood and carnage ahead. The chips are for all the marbles.

If bears drive chips lower, watch VIX 18.18 to see if the selling has legs. Also, XLF 52.40 is a line in the sand that will guarantee carnage ahead. If the SOX loses 5567, and remains below, and the SPX drops below 6416 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. S&P futures are up +9 as this is typed about 4 hours before the US opening bell for the regular session.

Stocks may spend another day idling, dancing to and fro, since the US Monthly Jobs Report drops in about 27 hours (that will impact the Fed rate decision on 9/17/25). Dancing in the Dark with the Boss, the Big Man on sax (Clarence), Max Weinburg banging the skins, and pretty actress Courtney Cox before she was famous.

9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/3/25; 3:48 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 1:45 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 1:04 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:43 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 12:24 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:16 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 11:44 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/3/25; 11:31 AM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after a wild day to begin the holiday-shortened week that will end with a Jobs Report crescendo. The quant prints a dozen numbers today but goes nowhere, man. The algo number is 11 points above the signal line.

Today was a battle between chips and volatility. The VIX jumped into the bear camp followed by semiconductors causing the flush lower in the SPX at the opening bell. But the pair turn positive again, then negative again, then positive again, then negative again, then positive again. The robot's internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move to the short side so the quant remains long.

VIX 18.23 and SOX 5565 dictate stock market direction currently. Both are in the bull camp so the bear's only need one to turn bearish to position the quant to go short. The difficult road for the bears tomorrow is that the SPX likely needs to drop below 6361 to allow the quant to go short and that is a long way down.

If volatility spikes, and chips collapse, like this morning, and one other parameter fails (maybe banks?), the quant may flip short immediately. For now, the bulls remain in possession of the stock market ball but it is difficult to hold with hooves.

Chips and volatility are controlling stock market direction currently with copper, commodities and banks waiting in the wings hoping to influence equities going forward. Today is a wild start to the month. Wake Me Up When September Ends.

9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/2/25; 2:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/2/25; 2:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:18 PM EST = +14; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 1:44 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/2/25; 1:38 PM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:48 AM EST = +14; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:10 AM EST = +28; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:57 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/2/25; 9:56 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 8:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +36