STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 12 points above the signal line. The robot was active last week after a couple-few weeks of idling along. The quant prints 8 numbers on Friday including the prescheduled number.

Volatility, copper and banks are the three key drivers of the stock market currently. All 3 are in the bull camp creating the never-ending buoyancy in equities. The bears needed 2 of the 3 metrics to turn bearish to take the ball away from the bulls but alas, copper and banks are firmly bullish giving bears no hope.

But Friday some interesting action occurs. If you were watching the VIX 16.97 line in the sand, price kept oscillating above and below in the early morning hours. Each time that the VIX price jogs above and below 16.97, the quant's algo number and signal line converge. Interestingly, the bears had it on a silver platter Friday morning, but could not convert one more jog move that would have placed the quant in position to go short.

But something important occurs. The robot no longer needs 2 of the 3 parameters to turn bearish; it only needs 1 of the 3. The bull/bear lines in the sand are VIX 16.97, CPER 29.07 and XLF 52.98. Bears need one of the three to turn bearish and the quant will be in position to flip short (consider the imminent turn to be at play).

On Friday, the Fed stepped in during the afternoon and crushed volatility, pushing Uncle Vix to the ground and placing a jackboot on his neck to hold him down, so stocks rallied into the weekend. The VIX retreated to 15.29 allowing bulls to puff their chests out all weekend long.

Since volatility is the main focal point, watch the VIX in the early morning hours East Coast time to see what the stock market will do later that day. If VIX remains below 16.97, the bulls rule and bears got nothing. If VIX pops above 16.97 heading higher, the wheels will fall off the stock market.

Just when the VIX appears to be the major determinant of the path ahead, copper and banks may surprise and collapse to create negativity. Copper futures need to fall -1.0% and the XLF needs to drop -1.7% to turn bearish and create market mayhem. Those are not big drops that may occur especially with copper.

If 1 of the 3 metrics above turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 6604 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

There is lots of market craziness occurring these days. The month and Q3 ends on Tuesday and October trading and Q4 begins on Wednesday. Keybot prints 3 prescheduled numbers this week. The jobs circus will be back in town on Friday. Pay close attention to volatility and copper since they will tell the story ahead. The bulls are still Stayin' Alive. Ah, ah, ah, ah, stayin' alive, stayin' alive.

10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/30/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
9/26/25; 7:39 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46
9/26/25; 7:27 AM EST = +46; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 7:14 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 6:53 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 5:12 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 4:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43
9/25/25; 2:43 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42
9/25/25; 1:45 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 10:16 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 7:48 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
9/24/25; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38