STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the holidays come and go. The bulls remain in charge after an uneventful Friday with the algo number 15 points above the signal line. The robot is tracking utilities, retail stocks, banks and commodities as the main drivers of the US stock market currently.

For the stock market to continue higher, bulls must prove themselves by pushing UTIL, or DJU, higher above 1114.36. UTIL begins the first full week of trading in 2026 at 1078 so the bulls face a formidable task. You can check XLU in the pre-market and individual utility tickers to see if the bulls are coming to play. If utes spike higher, that tells you the bulls are going to keep stocks elevated for a few days or week or so more. If utes lag and stumble sideways, or move lower, that tells you bad things are coming.

UTIL 1062 is another bull/bear line in the sand. If utilities fall through 1062, the stock market is toast and the SPX would be expected to drop 30 or 40 points within a couple hours after the breach and then lead to bad things after that.

Retail stocks are key with XRT 84.97 the line in the sand and price only about a buck away. Banks are important so watch the XLF 53.84 line in the sand and price is a couple percent away. Commodities are key with GTX 3888 the bull/bear demarcation and price begins at 3913.

That is the whole stock market in a nutshell. Will the holiday Nutcracker appear? Bulls need UTIL above 1114 to prove that they still got game and can take stocks higher like all the analysts on Wall Street predict. It will be interesting to see how the utes move out of the gate tomorrow morning.

Bears need UTIL under 1062, and/or XRT under 85, and/or XLF under 54, and/or GTX under 3888, any 1 of the 4 will do, to place the imminent turn in the title line. If any 1 of the 4 fall into the bear camp, and the SPX drops below 6824, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If/when the stock market turns south, you can use these 4 metrics to gauge the seriousness of the pullback.

UTIL 1062 carries a bit more clout than the other three metrics, like a front man in a band is a bit more important to a band as a whole. A wild front man like Mick. Under My Thumb. If UTIL 1062 fails, the stock market goes to Hades. If UTIL 1062 fails, it is likely signaling the start of extremely bad things and a crash would have to be placed on the table.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. It is a new year with new drama ahead.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25
1/1/26; Begin 2026 Data = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.0%)