STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number only 4 points below the signal line. You saw copper rally so you knew the bulls had an edge and stocks floated higher. You watched XRT and it crossed above its 87.78 bull/bear line in the sand, a palindrome, creating the afternoon orgy, but it did not last long, and retail stocks fell on their swords, stumbling lower, XRT turning bearish again below 87.78 so you knew the bulls did not have enough gusto.

Three parameters are running the stock market show as King Donnie prepares for the State of the Onion speech tonight. An aide is cleaning a jelly stain off his silk tie while another is shining his wingtips with a shammy and another is holding a cardboard sleeve of McDonalds McNuggets that he is snacking on. The orange head's words will impact specific stocks tomorrow.

Retail stocks, volatility and copper are running the show. Bears are in control of the stock market and need weaker copper to prove they got game. Bears need CPER below 45.44 that represents a big -2.4% drop in copper futures overnight. That is substantive but when commodities decide to move, they move big.

Bulls need either XRT above 87.78, that they attained today, but choked, and could not hold on, and/or VIX below 17.38. XRT is going to tell you market direction. As retail stocks go, so goes the stock market. Bulls desperately need VIX below 17.38 or they got buptkis despite any rally that occurs. Bears keep chuckling and slapping bulls around with the elevated volatility knowing that it is the bull's Kryptonite.

If bulls turn either XRT or VIX bullish, either one will do, and if the SPX rises about 9 points, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, so it is on a silver platter if the bulls want it. If both parameters turn bullish, stocks are going to rally bigtime.

3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/24/26; 2:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/24/26; 1:57 PM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/24/26; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/23/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6828 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.5%)