Thursday, October 6, 2011

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish to start the Thursday session. Two key sectors, retail and utilities, will dictate broad market direction.  If RTH, now at 103.32 moves above 103.50, this is a big plus for the market bulls; retail will lift the broad markets. If RTH stays below 103.50, however, this keeps the market upside in check.

For utilities, UTIL, continue to watch 424 and 418 (417.88). If UTIL moves above 424, the recovery rally will be building a head of steam and the markets will move upwards. If the RTH is above 103.50 then the recovery rally will be in full mode. If UTIL remains between 417.88 and 424, then the markets move sideways to sideways down. If UTIL drops under 417.88, the broad markets will drop significantly.

Note how the algo rode the down side the last few days but remained short the whole time, now only to see the SPX come all the way back up to the entry price. The quant is simply meandering a path thru this high-volatility up-huge and down-huge price action recently. Watch SPX 1146 since if the market bulls push two points higher at the open to move up and over then the upside has strong potential. Otherwise, the bull-bear wrestling match continues.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/9/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/7/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/5/11; 10:35 AM EST = -72
10/5/11; 9:54 AM EST = -88
10/4/11; 3:43 PM EST = -72
10/4/11; 9:39 AM EST = -88
10/3/11; 3:59 PM EST = -72
10/2/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -56; signal line is -42
9/30/11; 12:11 PM EST = -56; signal line is -42
9/30/11; 11:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -42 but algorithm says stay short
9/30/11; 10:00 AM EST = -56; signal line is -43
9/30/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -43
9/29/11; 2:10 PM EST = -56; signal line is -45; go short 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=-0.2%; Keybot for 2011=+23.9%)(Actual this trade via DIA=+1.1%; Actual for 2011=+35.2%)

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