Monday, October 31, 2011

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but the caution flag waves again.  The quant falls from +36 to +6 in a heart beat, the algo number and signl line converging closer which leads to Keybot flipping short at some point forward.  Copper is dropping this morning reflective of dollar strength.

Continue to watch copper today. Use JJC as a proxy, the 46.75 level, last print is 46.60 favoring market bears in the broad markets, but only by 15 pennies.  As highlighted last evening, the SPX 1277 level is key today since this is the 12-month MA cross that projects a secular bear market versus a secular bull market, and the month-end print occurs at 4 PM today, when the print is cast in concrete.  Thus, SPX closing today above 1277 and the bulls can throw confetti. A close below 1277 and the market bears are still in control of these markets. If the market bears decide to take things lower, they will probably attack the retail or banking sectors, or, try to drive volatilty, the VIX, above 30 again.

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =
11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/31/11; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is -8
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is -9
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is -11
10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13
10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15
10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17
10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18
10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20
10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20
10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21
10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

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