Wednesday, October 12, 2011

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long idling along today with no additional numbers printing. Semi's, retail and as of today, financials, are lifting the broad markets.  XLF closed at 12.74, above the critical 12.60 level the algo is now fixated on, so the market bulls came to play again today. The indexes will remain buoyant as long as XLF stays above 12.60.

The utes, UTIL, however, languished today, barely getting above 438 in the afternoon session, never threatening 439, so the market bears have something to hang their hat on. Market upside is limited unless UTIL goes over 439 this week. Similarly, volatility, the VIX, came down but never really threatened the 28.75 level, so the market bears kept the volatility elevated to help their cause.  Markets will not move up unless either the utes or volatility cooperates.  Markets will weaken if the XLF falls back under 12.60.

For the Thursday session, the SPX begins at 1207.   Market bulls need to see a 1220 handle, if so, the buyers will enter in force.  Market bears need to see 1196 give way, if so, the sellers will enter in force.  A move thru 1197-1219 is sideways action.

In a nutshell, for the direction of the broad markets, watch XLF 12.60, UTIL 439, VIX 28.75 and SPX 1120/1196.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/12/11; 10:01 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 3:54 PM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/9/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/7/11; 3:40 PM EST = -40; signal line is -51
10/7/11; 3:22 PM EST = -28
10/7/11; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -52
10/6/11; 10:21 AM EST = -40; signal line is -53; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+0.0%; Keybot for 2011=+23.9%)(Actual this trade via DOG=+0.3%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)

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