STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the holiday-shortened trading week.  The China PMI was slightly better than expected but the HSBC number thought to be more reliable was worse. Markets will have to sort it out overnight tonight.  Commodities, copper and utilities are key this week.  CRB tumbled 2% last week and went unnoticed.  If the CRB, now at 308.46, stays under 312, the broad markets will experience selling pressure.  If the JJC, now at 49.07, which is on the bullish side, falls under 48.83, broad market selling will noticeably increase.  CRB and JJC moves inverse to the dolalr.  Market bears want to see a stronger dollar so CRB and JJC will drop.  Bulls want to see a weaker dollar.

Utilties are very important this week and especially in the opening minutes of tomorrow's bell. UTIL starts the week at 458.93.  If price stays under 462.94 (call it 463), the algo number will drop from +62 probably down to +46 firmly favoring the market bears. Thus, the bulls need to see a gap up open of four points for UTIL to not turn bearish. The quant is focused on the interplay of CRB, JJC and UTIL currently and the opening minutes will tell a lot.

For the SPX, starting at 1408.47, the bulls need to touch the 1411 handle, if so, the bulls will accelerate the upside several more handles.  The bears need to push under 1401 to accelerate the downside.  A move thru 1402-1410 is sideways action.  Independent of what the SPX is doing, the action of CRB, JJC and UTIL, as described above, is far more important. Markets remain highly unstable. One pre-scheduled number is printed this week on Friday morning, but markets will be closed.  Thus, the volatility in the markets, or lack thereof, will dictate the quant's activity. The opening minutes of trading Monday are very important.

4/8/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/6/12; 9:00 AM EST =

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +62; signal line is +65

3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST = +62; signal line is +66

3/29/12; 3:14 PM EST = +62; signal line is +66