Sectors such as copper, commodities and semiconductors are the main drivers of market weakness currently. The Flash PMI overnight will impact copper and commodities. Watch JJC 48.20, now at 47.21,favoring bearishness in markets.
The quant is scanning XLF, VIX and RTH with the greatest interest. Watch XLF 15.10, now at 15.19, impacting markets bullishly but only by nine pennies. The broad indexes will take another leg lower if XLF 15.10 fails. Watch RTH 41.00, now at 41.90, impacting markets bullishly. The broad indexes will weaken if RTH 41.00 fails. Watch VIX 18.90, now at 17.44, impacting markets bullishly. The broad indexes will weaken if the VIX moves above 18.90. If any two of these three scenario's occur, the quant will likely flip to the short side, otherwise, Keybot will likely stay long.
For the SPX starting at 1379, failure at the 1377-1378 level will accelerate a move lower for markets. The bulls need to push upwards thru the 1387-1388 to create an upward market acceleration. A move thru 1377-1385 is sideways action. Since the bears only need a couple red points in the futures tonight, the France and HSBC information mentioned above is very important. Markets remain unstable. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday and one on Friday.
4/30/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =
4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =
4/24/12; 10:00 AM EST =
4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +12
4/19/12; 3:03 PM EST = +30; signal line is +11
Note Added 4/23/12 at 4:51 AM EST: Sarkozy loses to Hollande as expected and the S&P futures fell a couple points last evening, no biggie. As more of Hollande's ideas are exposed, however, the markets may further sour. The France runoff election is 5/6/12. The more important news was the HSBC Flash China PMI coming in at 49.1, showing six consecutive months of a contracting Chinese economy (under 50 is contraction). The dollar is up while copper, oil, gold, silver and commodities are down. Diesel demand in China is dropping significantly which is not a good sign of a robust economy. The weakness in the sectors filters into the weak U.S. futures, the Dow Industrials down over 100 at this writing. The behavior of VIX, XLF and RTH after the opening bell is very important as described above.
Note Added 4/23/12 at 4:51 AM EST: Sarkozy loses to Hollande as expected and the S&P futures fell a couple points last evening, no biggie. As more of Hollande's ideas are exposed, however, the markets may further sour. The France runoff election is 5/6/12. The more important news was the HSBC Flash China PMI coming in at 49.1, showing six consecutive months of a contracting Chinese economy (under 50 is contraction). The dollar is up while copper, oil, gold, silver and commodities are down. Diesel demand in China is dropping significantly which is not a good sign of a robust economy. The weakness in the sectors filters into the weak U.S. futures, the Dow Industrials down over 100 at this writing. The behavior of VIX, XLF and RTH after the opening bell is very important as described above.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.