Thursday, January 16, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Equities oscillate higher, and lower, but the parameters currently driving the market are remaining in their respective camps with neither side willing to give up. Retail has likely suffered structural damage this week. Watch utilities. For next week the key numbers are UTIL 491.68 and 494.12. UTIL is 492.70 creating market strength by being above 491.68 but at the same time creating bearishness below 494.12. Pay attention to where UTIL closes the week since this will have a great impact on the broad indexes when they reopen on Tuesday morning. The bears need either JJC 40.42 and/or VIX 13.87 to create market negativity. If UTIL moves above 494.12, and the SPX moves above 1848, and both remain above, Keybot will likely flip to the long side.

For the SPX starting at 1846, the bulls only need two points, to punch up through 1848 and price will move well into the 1850's. The bears need to push below 1840 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1841-1847 is sideways action. The algo has not printed any numbers since flipping short on Monday but will print two pre-scheduled numbers tomorrow morning. Watch UTIL closely at the opening bell. A strong drop in copper overnight would provide the all-clear signal for bears. Higher copper and higher utilities will make for happy bulls into the 3-day holiday weekend.

1/19/14; 7:00 PM EST =
1/17/14; 10:00 AM EST =
1/17/14; 9:00 AM EST =
1/13/14; 2:28 PM EST = +33; signal line is +44; go short 1827; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = -1.1%)(Keybot this trade = -0.5%; Keybot for 2014 = -0.7%)(Actual this trade = -1.1%; Actual for 2014 = -1.7%)

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