Thursday, December 17, 2015


Keybot the Quant remains long and is very active in the Thursday trade printing five numbers. The bears did not violate key bull-bear levels (except for SPX 2052.65) so the algo remains long. You will know that down is the direction if any one, two or all three of these parameters fail; XLF under 24.08, SOX under 660.90 and/or VIX above 19.19. If two of the three turn bearish, Keybot will likely flip short.  If none of these three turn bearish, the bears got nothing and stocks will rally. The bulls need to push SPX above 2052.65 to regain their mojo. So bears will win with lower financials and chips and higher volatility while bulls win if the SPX moves above 2052.

For the SPX starting at 2042, the bulls need to retrace Thursday's down move, a formidable task, so instead bulls will focus on the above parameters. The bears need any smidge of negativity in the overnight S&P futures and the downside will accelerate at the opening bell. XLF 24.08 and SOX 660.90 will immediately tell you market direction after the opening bell.

12/20/15; 7:00 PM EST =
12/17/15; 2:56 PM EST = +18; signal line is -2
12/17/15; 1:13 PM EST = +32; signal line is -4
12/17/15; 12:40 PM EST = +18; signal line is -5
12/17/15; 11:42 AM EST = +32; signal line is -6
12/17/15; 11:22 AM EST = +18; signal line is -7
12/16/15; 2:10 PM EST = +32; signal line is -7; go long 2059; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +11.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = +19.6%)

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