Monday, December 21, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after a very active day with the algo printing eight numbers to begin the week. The bulls are pumping chips and lowering volatility to create upside buoyancy in the stock market. Note that the algo number and signal line are dead flat at +2 verifying the knock-down, drag-out bull-bear fight in play. Flip a coin, someone will have to lose and the other win.

The bears need either SOX under 659.70 (now at 666) and/or VIX above 19.55 (now at 18.70). The bulls need either JJC above 25.10 (now at 24.67) and/or the SPX above 2052. So the bears need lower chips and higher volatility while the bulls need higher copper. Keep an eye on copper in the coming days since bulls are trying to ignite some life in the other yellow metal which will boost the broad stock market. Market bulls likely need higher copper to flip the model long but as always anything can happen. Keybot only reads the 1's and 0's and these color commentaries try to provide insight into the algo's behavior.

For the SPX starting at 2021, the bulls need to touch the 2023 handle, less than 2 points higher and bingo, the upside will accelerate towards 2030. The bears must push under 2006 which will create an acceleration under 2K quickly. A move through 2007-2022 is sideways action for Tuesday. Since the model appears to be at a standoff, a pivot may occur and commitment one way or the other. If semiconductors move lower and volatility higher, bears win. If copper moves higher, bulls win.

12/27/15; 7:00 PM EST =
12/21/15; 3:37 PM EST = +2; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
12/21/15; 3:15 PM EST = -12; signal line is +1
12/21/15; 1:07 PM EST = +2; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short
12/21/15; 12:28 PM EST = -12; signal line is -2
12/21/15; 11:41 AM EST = -28; signal line is -3
12/21/15; 11:19 AM EST = -12; signal line is -3
12/21/15; 10:11 AM EST = +2; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
12/21/15; 10:07 AM EST = -14; signal line is -3
12/20/15; 7:00 PM EST = -28; signal line is -3

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.