Monday, June 13, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this afternoon at SPX 2084. Financials failed so you knew that stocks would retreat. That was quite a fight at XLF 23.12; it amazing that the algorithm can identify these key parameters and their levels before they occur.

Tuesday will be a fight between retail stocks and financials. Bulls need stronger banks while bears need weaker retail stocks. Bears need RTH to drop under 76.14 (now at 76.18) and equities will take another strong leg lower. Bulls need XLF above 23.12 (now at 23.00) to stop the market selling and begin a recovery rally. If banks remain bearish and retail stocks remain bullish, the stock market will float along sideways with an upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 2079 on Tuesday, the bears need to push under 2078, only one point lower, and stocks will accelerate lower. The bulls need to push above 2098 to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead, bulls will focus on pushing XLF above 23.12 which will immediately create market stability. A move through SPX 2079-2097 is sideways action for Tuesday.

The benchmark SPX index is now up +2% on the year. On the last trade, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +1.5% and is up +8.4% this year. The actual trading gains +3.0% on the last trade which places the actual trading up over +15% on the year thus far (the algorithm program triggers where the actual trading enters and exits the ETF's). Keybot exited SSO and entered QID remaining in the double-leveraged ETF's.

The bears have the ball. Watch the retail stocks and banks since they determine which way the stock market goes on Tuesday.

6/17/16; 9:00 AM EST =
6/13/16; 3:26 PM EST = +50; signal line is +63
6/13/16; 3:17 PM EST = +34; signal line is +63
6/13/16; 3:11 PM EST = +50; signal line is +63; go short 2084; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +2.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +8.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.0%; Actual results for 2016 = +15.3%)
6/13/16; 1:57 PM EST = +50; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains long
6/12/16; 7:00 PM EST = +66; signal line is +63
6/10/16; 1:57 PM EST = +66; signal line is +63
6/10/16; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +62
6/5/16; 7:00 PM EST = +80; signal line is +61
6/3/16; 9:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +60
5/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +80; signal line is +60
5/31/16; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +58
5/29/16; 7:00 PM EST = +81; signal line is +58
5/27/16; 10:00 AM EST = +81; signal line is +57
5/25/16; 10:02 AM EST = +79; signal line is +57
5/22/16; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +57
5/20/16; 9:52 AM EST = +63; signal line is +57; go long 2054; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +6.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2016 = +12.3%)

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