Monday, August 21, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side on Monday morning at SPX 2426. The stock market is chopping sideways. Commodities fail back into the bear camp. The market bears are in good shape but you would not know it since stocks remain buoyant.

The stock market should roll over to the downside unless GTX moves above 2215.80, XLF above 24.65 and/or SOX above 1074. Any one of the three will stop the market selling. Two of the three will create a relief rally for stocks. If all three remain bearish, stocks should drop in earnest.

On the last trade, which did not even last one day, and is identified as a whpsaw, the algorithm loses -0.3% and the actual trading loses -0.6%. Since it was a whipsaw, Keybot drops down into using single ETF's over the next 35 days. Keybot exits SSO and enters SH. This will reduce risk if the sideways chop continues. Sideways slop chews up bulls and bears alike. The benchmark SPX is up +8.4% this year and the algo model and the actual trading each remain up +4% or more on the year.

GTX 2216, XLF 24.65 and SOX 1074 tells you everything you need to know for Tuesday. The bears are in control with the algo number 37 points under the signal line.

8/27/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/21/17; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +61; go short 2426; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +8.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +4.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2017 = +4.2%)
8/20/17; 7:00 PM EST = +38; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains long
8/18/17; 3:56 PM EST = +38; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains long
8/18/17; 3:23 PM EST = +54; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains long
8/18/17; 2:18 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68
8/18/17; 1:49 PM EST = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long
8/18/17; 12:17 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69; go long 2433; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +8.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +4.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.6%; Actual results for 2017 = +4.8%)

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