Wednesday, August 30, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bull side at SPX 2452. The whipsaw moves are getting old. The bulls and bears are in a knock-down drag-out fight for market control. XLF closes exactly on the 24.67 that Keybot called out a head of time. Isn't that impressive? Ditto the VIX that was teasing a close on the 11.14 line in the sand but ended at 11.22 after all the settlements.

The algo number and signal line are the same number proving the bull-bear tug-o-war in progress. The model could very well flip back to the short side tomorrow.

Banks and volatility tell the market story tomorrow. As banks go at the opening bell, so goes the stock market. If XLF drops below 24.67, bears win, above and bulls win. If VIX drops under 11.14, the bulls will be throwing a huge upside stock market party. The bears remain in the game if they can keep the VIX above 11.14 and moving higher.

If XLF drops under 24.67, and the SPX dfrops under 2444, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side, hence the market whipsaw choppiness continues. The stock market is erratic and unstable.

On the last whipsaw trade, the algo program lost -0.7%. The SPX did a round trip from the previous trade fro 2452 down to 2434 and now 2434 back up to 2452. The actual tradign lost -1.4% and drops down to up only +1% on the year thus far. Sideways choppy markets with low volatility chews up algorithm programs. The SPX benchmark is up +9.5% this year. Keybot exits PSQ and enters DIA.

Watch the  pivot of XLF 24.67; the banks tell you which way the stock market will move.

9/3/17; 7:00 PM EST =
9/1/17; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/17; 3:42 PM EST = +56; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
8/30/17; 2:40 PM EST = +70; signal line is +56
8/30/17; 1:48 PM EST = +56; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
8/30/17; 1:04 PM EST = +70; signal line is +56
8/30/17; 10:49 AM EST = +56; signal line is +56; go long 2452; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.0%)
8/30/17; 10:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
8/29/17; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +55
8/29/17; 9:51 AM EST = +40; signal line is +54
8/29/17; 9:44 AM EST = +24; signal line is +54; go short 2434; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +8.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +2.4%)

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