Tuesday, August 29, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning at SPX 2434 as the whipsaw erratic market action continues. The North Korea missile launch causes angst in markets overnight but President Trump's response appears mild so markets are trying to recover. The algo, however, remains short.

Semiconductors, banks and volatility are key parameters most impacting stock market direction. Pay attention to SOX 1075.07 the bull-bear line in the sand. This level failed this morning but price has since recovered. Market bears need SOX under 1075.07 and if this occurs, stocks should begin dropping sharply.

Market bulls need either XLF above 24.65 and/or VIX under 11.18 to stop the market selling and begin a rally higher. The weakness in the banks is hurting the stock market today.

On the last trade, the algorithm program and actual trading each lose -0.7%. The benchmark SPX is up +8.7% on the year. Keybot exits SPY with the minor loss and enters PSQ. The Keybot computer program and the actual trading are each up a couple percent this year.

Bears need SOX 1075.07 to throw confetti. Bulls will celebrate with either XLF 24.65 or VIX 11.18. The algo printed a pre-scheduled number this morning at 10 AM EST and prints another on Friday morning before the opening bell.

SOX is printing at 1080 running higher. XLF is 24.50 moving higher. VIX is 12.33 moving lower. The bulls are trying to stabilize the stock market. Bears need weaker chips but the bulls are goosing the semi's higher.

9/3/17; 7:00 PM EST =
9/1/17; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/17; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +55
8/29/17; 9:51 AM EST = +40; signal line is +54
8/29/17; 9:44 AM EST = +24; signal line is +54; go short 2434; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +8.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +2.4%)
8/29/17; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
8/28/17; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +55
8/27/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +54
8/25/17; 2:16 PM EST = +70; signal line is +54
8/25/17; 2:02 PM EST = +56; signal line is +53
8/25/17; 1:46 PM EST = +70; signal line is +54
8/25/17; 10:48 AM EST = +56; signal line is +53
8/25/17; 10:27 AM EST = +70; signal line is +53
8/25/17; 10:12 AM EST = +84; signal line is +53
8/25/17; 10:07 AM EST = +70; signal line is +52
8/25/17; 9:54 AM EST = +56; signal line is +53
8/25/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +54
8/23/17; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +55
8/22/17; 3:59 PM EST = +70; signal line is +57; go long 2452; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.1%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.1%)

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