Friday, February 1, 2019


Keybot the Quant remains long. Fed Chairman Powell flapped his dovish wings on Wednesday afternoon dropping money from the sky. The stock market catapults higher on central banker easy money as it has for a decade. Utilities flip to the bull side creating more upside momo in equities.

However, the 4.0% unemployment rate creates negativity in the Keybot model. This comes out of left field. The algo signaled a healthy job market ahead in late 2010 nine years ago and that joy continued until today. An unhealthy job market going forward is not good news. A rising unemployment rate occurs in concert with an oncoming recession. It will take another 2 or 3 months to see what the story is. The sentiment data is weak which also creates negativity in the algorithm.

The bulls remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 15 points above the signal line. UTIL 729.72 is a key level for all of next week. Price is at 722 right now and went up to look at 729-730 late yesterday. The thieves are already sniffing out this level that Keybot called out before it occurred. Bulls will benefit greatly if UTIL moves above 729.72. Bears will receive downside fuel and send stocks lower if UTIL slips below 711.80.

Bears will also benefit from lower retail stocks, lower copper and higher volatility. Bulls will benefit from stronger commodities and a higher NYA Index. Bulls will also benefit greatly if the SPX overtakes the 2728 level. This will sound the joyous all-clear for stocks and the SPX 3000+ targets by the Wall Street analyst Einstein's may not look so silly after all. Bears must prevent the SPX from moving above 2728 with all their might. The stock market remains in a cyclical bear market as long as the SPX remains below 2728. The beat goes on.

2/3/19; 7:00 PM EST =
2/1/19; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +11
2/1/19; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +11
1/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +42; signal line is +11
1/30/19; 2:17 PM EST = +42; signal line is +11
1/29/19; 3:13 PM EST = +26; signal line is +10

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.