Friday, February 8, 2019


Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 18 points above the signal line. At lunch time yesterday, the bears were flexing their muscles but utilities ran higher supporting the stock market.

UTIL catapults higher to 736 creating market joy. Bears need UTIL below 729.72 today to create negativity and this number expires at 4 PM and is replaced with 724.85 for all of next week. Utes will tell you a lot about stock market strength. Bulls will be joyous going forward as long as UTIL remains above 730. If UTIL drops below 730, the stock market will noticeably weaken and if 725 is lost, which is key for all of next week, this portends more weakness for equities ahead. Utes are not only key in the very short term (VST) as described but also for predicting the intermediate term. Pay attention to those numbers as well as UTIL 713 which is the trap-door which may create a drastic drop (fee fall) in the stock market should it fail.

Bears will also benefit from weaker banks. Bears need XLF below 25.36 (now at 25.80) to create a strong leg lower in the stock market. If UTIL or XLF turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX then loses the 2687 level, Keybot will likely flip short

The bulls need the SPX above 2727.80 pronto (begins the Friday session at 2706). This is the demarcation line between a cyclical bull market and cyclical bear market. The bulls managed to poke above for a couple days but the bears smacked price back below so the stock market remains in a cyclical bear pattern going forward (weeks and months).

Bulls will also benefit from stronger commodities and a higher NYA index. Bulls need GTX above 2454.10 (now at 2388) and NYA above 12489 (now at 12295), respectively. You will know that the stock market rally has serious up legs if either SPX moves above 2727, GTX above 2454, and/or NYA above 12489.

The NYA 12489 is also a cyclical market signal so you can see the extreme importance of the SPX 2727-2728 and NYA 12489-12490 levels. These two parameters dictate whether the bulls or the bears will be happy for the weeks and months ahead. For now, both indicators say the US stock market is in a cyclical bear market pattern. Stock market bulls will throw confetti and sing songs if either SPX moves above 2727 or NYA above 12489. Bears rejoice if prices remain below these levelsThe beat goes on.

2/10/19; 7:00 PM EST =
2/7/19; 1:08 PM EST = +42; signal line is +24
2/7/19; 12:31 PM EST = +26; signal line is +23
2/7/19; 11:19 AM EST = +42; signal line is +21
2/7/19; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +19
2/6/19; 10:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +18
2/6/19; 10:17 AM EST = +26; signal line is +16
2/5/19; 1:48 PM EST = +40; signal line is +15
2/5/19; 1:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +13
2/5/19; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +12
2/3/19; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +11
2/1/19; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +11

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