STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls squeeze-out more juice from the stock market with the algo number now 4 points above the signal line. That is nothing to write home about but the bears cannot make any headway lower. The Fed meeting and rate decision tomorrow, and more data, and the Jobs Report, and tariff deadline will all have their day. The strong, the weak, will all have their day. Winners and Losers. Which one will you be today?

The bears have their work cut out for them even though the algo number and signal line are lining-out together. Pay attention to the banks and retail stocks. Bears will win the day if either XLF loses -2.2% and/or if XRT loses -2.5%. If either turn bearish, the imminent turn to the short side will be on the table.

Chairman Powell is picking-up his white dove suit at the cleaners. It had a jelly stain on the left wing from last month's free buffet. A rate cut is not expected so Powell's words will matter. Does he appease Trumpski cooing dovishly and guaranteeing a cut in September in about 6 weeks, or, will he stay the course and keep the rate cut up in the air waiting on more data? There is now about a 65% chance of a rate cut occurring in September. King Donnie is ready to tweet like an adolescent child as soon as the FOMC decision occurs.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +56
7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the hazy, lazy summer continues. The quant did not print any numbers last week just like two weeks before that is extremely odd and rare behavior. Something must be going on under the surface. The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction but the algo number is only one measly point above the signal line.

Nonetheless, the stock market parameters remain bullish across the board. The crack will probably occur in banks, commodities, and/or copper, that the quant considers the most important metrics currently.

XLF needs to fall about -2.7% to help the bears that is still a tall ask. Therefore, thinking out loud and knowing how the algorithm operates reading the 1's and 0's, the pre-scheduled numbers may play a critical role this week. 

Today, the stock market prints a new all-time record high at 6401.07 and new all-time closing high at 6389.77. Where's the SPX 6.4K hats? 

The bulls maintain elevated stocks with daily Trump tariff happy talk (the orange head announced the EU deal two hours before the Sunday futures opened on the East Coast last night), inflation data, and now this epic week with earnings from big tech companies, Fed Chairman Powell's press conference and rate decision (no cut expected), EOM, Con Con tomorrow and the Monthly Jobs Report on Friday along with a King Donnie tariff deadline to end the week.

The stock market is spinning in place, like Natalie was known for when she performed. Wonder. Great guitar work by Jenny.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/29/25; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market remains goosed by the ongoing hype that interest rate cuts will occur at any time. King Donnie wants the rate cuts because he knows prices are going to move higher from here due to his tariffs. The quant is not very active for the last couple weeks and the bulls remain in control of the stock market but only by one single measly point.

Nonetheless, the market metrics have taken a ride to Orgiville and do not want to leave.  The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6315.61 on 7/18/25 and the all-time closing high is on Thursday, 7/17/25, at 6297.36.

The quant is tracking retail stocks, banks and commodities as the key metrics controlling stock market direction currently. It will be interesting to see how it cracks whenever that occurs. XRT would need to lose -3.2%, and/or XLF lose -2.7%, and/or GTX lose -2.5%, to position the quant to go short. Any 1 of the 3 would work but you can see the bulls are in comfortable control.

Keybot the Quant does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The boring price action should give way to excitement at some point ahead. For now, it is Clams Casino on a Sunday night, having a good time.

7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST =
7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/18/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +55
7/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +54
7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long in a sleepy summer mode. The robot is idling along for over a week without printing any numbers. The bulls remain in control of the stock market but the banks, retail stocks and commodities are in play and the algo number is only 4 points from the signal line.

The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6302.04 yesterday but the all-time closing high at 6280.46 from 7/10/25 remains in place.

Banks are key since earnings are released this week. The quant identifies XLF 51.07 as the bull/bear line in the sand. In the pre-market right now, less than 5 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street, XLF is at 51.666. If XLF loses the 51.07 level, and the SPX is below 6242 trending lower, the quant will likely flip short.

The quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one before the opening bell on Friday morning and one after the open. Watch the banks.

7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST =
7/18/25; 10:00 AM EST =
7/18/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +53
7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls remain in full control of the stock market. The stock market is one big party just like the dotcom bubble in 1999/2000. The quant is idling along on the long side with the algo number only a measly 5 points above the signal line.

Weakness in commodities and utilities may help the bears but each sector that weakens is immediately boosted to keep the Wall Street party going. Banks took off higher. Copper jumped higher. Volatility collapses. It is a bull's dream.

The quant does not print any prescheduled numbers this week. Up, Up and Away. Oh we can fly in my beautiful balloon. At least until it pops.

7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST =
7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +52
7/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +52
6/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +57; signal line is +51
6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +50