STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Thursday session starts out with bullish euphoria and a new all-time record high at 6427.02, followed by stocks falling on their sword reversing one hundo points intraday and then ending at 6339.

Today is end of month and August trading begins tomorrow. The US Monthly Jobs Report is released tomorrow morning and may send stocks into a tizzy.

Dr Copper is puking all over the hospital hallway and is placed on a gurney and wheeled into the emergency room. Medic! Stat! The quant is tracking retail stocks and banks as the two most important parameters impacting stock market direction and both retreated today coming closer to their bull/bear lines in the sand.

If XRT loses 78.03 (give or take a few pennies because the quant is constantly recalculating), it is lights-out for stocks (a drop of -0.6%). If XLF loses 51.72, it is lights-out for stocks (a drop of -1.2%). Banks would likely be more impacted by jobs data than retail stocks. If both fail into the bear camp, stocks will be falling like rocks. If both remain in the bull camp, equities will stagger sideways like the drunks in Times Square on Saturday night. Outside its another yellow moon, the trains are full of all those Brooklyn girls, all of my dreams fall like rain, always on a downtown train. Tom Waits masterpiece Downtown Train sung by Patty.

So the stage is set. The retail stocks and banks will tell you if the downside has legs or if it is a pig in a poke.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +56
7/30/25; 3:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56; go short 6348 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +7.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +22.7%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +25.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday afternoon straight-up at 3 PM EST at SPX 6348. The algo number is 12 points below the signal line. The crash in copper comes out of left field (due to King Donnie's Trade and Tariff War) and then the Fed decision created soggy stocks triggering the robot to go short.

Copper needs to recover bigtime to right the ship but that does not appear to be on the docket going forward. S&P futures are up over +60 points on happy tech earnings last evening but copper will likely remain in the cellar.

Retail stocks and banks will tell you if the move lower has legs. If the XRT loses -1.6% and/or the XLF loses -2.0%, stocks will be in a lot of trouble. If these two parameters remain bullish, stocks will likely stutter sideways waiting on more information.

On the last trade, that ran for 2 months, the quant program gains a huge +7% ditto the actual trading. The entire gain for the S&P 500 this year (+8%) basically occurred over the last 2 months. For the year, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +23% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a huge +26% three times the gain in the SPX this year thus far. Keybot exited SPY and entered SDS back into the 2x ETF's since the whipsaw timer from 6/2/25 has expired.

As always, watch for a potential whipsaw, and futures are up big, but the copper crash may prevent the quant from flipping back to the long side. There are probably more surprises ahead this week but for now, Keybot the Quant is on the short side. The copper crash yesterday was more important than the ongoing tariff drama and the Fed.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/25; 3:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56; go short 6348 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +7.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +22.7%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +25.8%)
7/30/25; 2:18 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
7/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +56
7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/18/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +55
7/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +54
7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +53
7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +52
7/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +52
6/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +57; signal line is +51
6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +50
6/27/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +50
6/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +49
6/22/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
6/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +46
6/13/25; 3:09 PM EST = +60; signal line is +45
6/13/25; 2:38 PM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
6/13/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +43
6/6/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41
6/4/25; 3:59 PM EST = +60; signal line is +40
6/4/25; 3:14 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +38
6/3/25; 3:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
6/2/25; 3:06 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36
6/2/25; 2:51 PM EST = +60; signal line is +35
6/2/25; 2:23 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35; go long 5925 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +15.6%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2025 = +18.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls squeeze-out more juice from the stock market with the algo number now 4 points above the signal line. That is nothing to write home about but the bears cannot make any headway lower. The Fed meeting and rate decision tomorrow, and more data, and the Jobs Report, and tariff deadline will all have their day. The strong, the weak, will all have their day. Winners and Losers. Which one will you be today?

The bears have their work cut out for them even though the algo number and signal line are lining-out together. Pay attention to the banks and retail stocks. Bears will win the day if either XLF loses -2.2% and/or if XRT loses -2.5%. If either turn bearish, the imminent turn to the short side will be on the table.

Chairman Powell is picking-up his white dove suit at the cleaners. It had a jelly stain on the left wing from last month's free buffet. A rate cut is not expected so Powell's words will matter. Does he appease Trumpski cooing dovishly and guaranteeing a cut in September in about 6 weeks, or, will he stay the course and keep the rate cut up in the air waiting on more data? There is now about a 65% chance of a rate cut occurring in September. King Donnie is ready to tweet like an adolescent child as soon as the FOMC decision occurs.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +56
7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the hazy, lazy summer continues. The quant did not print any numbers last week just like two weeks before that is extremely odd and rare behavior. Something must be going on under the surface. The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction but the algo number is only one measly point above the signal line.

Nonetheless, the stock market parameters remain bullish across the board. The crack will probably occur in banks, commodities, and/or copper, that the quant considers the most important metrics currently.

XLF needs to fall about -2.7% to help the bears that is still a tall ask. Therefore, thinking out loud and knowing how the algorithm operates reading the 1's and 0's, the pre-scheduled numbers may play a critical role this week. 

Today, the stock market prints a new all-time record high at 6401.07 and new all-time closing high at 6389.77. Where's the SPX 6.4K hats? 

The bulls maintain elevated stocks with daily Trump tariff happy talk (the orange head announced the EU deal two hours before the Sunday futures opened on the East Coast last night), inflation data, and now this epic week with earnings from big tech companies, Fed Chairman Powell's press conference and rate decision (no cut expected), EOM, Con Con tomorrow and the Monthly Jobs Report on Friday along with a King Donnie tariff deadline to end the week.

The stock market is spinning in place, like Natalie was known for when she performed. Wonder. Great guitar work by Jenny.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/29/25; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market remains goosed by the ongoing hype that interest rate cuts will occur at any time. King Donnie wants the rate cuts because he knows prices are going to move higher from here due to his tariffs. The quant is not very active for the last couple weeks and the bulls remain in control of the stock market but only by one single measly point.

Nonetheless, the market metrics have taken a ride to Orgiville and do not want to leave.  The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6315.61 on 7/18/25 and the all-time closing high is on Thursday, 7/17/25, at 6297.36.

The quant is tracking retail stocks, banks and commodities as the key metrics controlling stock market direction currently. It will be interesting to see how it cracks whenever that occurs. XRT would need to lose -3.2%, and/or XLF lose -2.7%, and/or GTX lose -2.5%, to position the quant to go short. Any 1 of the 3 would work but you can see the bulls are in comfortable control.

Keybot the Quant does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The boring price action should give way to excitement at some point ahead. For now, it is Clams Casino on a Sunday night, having a good time.

7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST =
7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/18/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +55
7/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +54
7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long in a sleepy summer mode. The robot is idling along for over a week without printing any numbers. The bulls remain in control of the stock market but the banks, retail stocks and commodities are in play and the algo number is only 4 points from the signal line.

The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6302.04 yesterday but the all-time closing high at 6280.46 from 7/10/25 remains in place.

Banks are key since earnings are released this week. The quant identifies XLF 51.07 as the bull/bear line in the sand. In the pre-market right now, less than 5 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street, XLF is at 51.666. If XLF loses the 51.07 level, and the SPX is below 6242 trending lower, the quant will likely flip short.

The quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one before the opening bell on Friday morning and one after the open. Watch the banks.

7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST =
7/18/25; 10:00 AM EST =
7/18/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +53
7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls remain in full control of the stock market. The stock market is one big party just like the dotcom bubble in 1999/2000. The quant is idling along on the long side with the algo number only a measly 5 points above the signal line.

Weakness in commodities and utilities may help the bears but each sector that weakens is immediately boosted to keep the Wall Street party going. Banks took off higher. Copper jumped higher. Volatility collapses. It is a bull's dream.

The quant does not print any prescheduled numbers this week. Up, Up and Away. Oh we can fly in my beautiful balloon. At least until it pops.

7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST =
7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +52
7/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +52
6/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +57; signal line is +51
6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +50