Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls squeeze-out more juice from the stock market with the algo number now 4 points above the signal line. That is nothing to write home about but the bears cannot make any headway lower. The Fed meeting and rate decision tomorrow, and more data, and the Jobs Report, and tariff deadline will all have their day. The strong, the weak, will all have their day. Winners and Losers. Which one will you be today?
The bears have their work cut out for them even though the algo number and signal line are lining-out together. Pay attention to the banks and retail stocks. Bears will win the day if either XLF loses -2.2% and/or if XRT loses -2.5%. If either turn bearish, the imminent turn to the short side will be on the table.
Chairman Powell is picking-up his white dove suit at the cleaners. It had a jelly stain on the left wing from last month's free buffet. A rate cut is not expected so Powell's words will matter. Does he appease Trumpski cooing dovishly and guaranteeing a cut in September in about 6 weeks, or, will he stay the course and keep the rate cut up in the air waiting on more data? There is now about a 65% chance of a rate cut occurring in September. King Donnie is ready to tweet like an adolescent child as soon as the FOMC decision occurs.
8/3/25;
7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25;
9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25;
7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/29/25;
10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line
is +56
7/27/25;
7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line
is +56
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