STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side since the Powell speech on Friday but the algo number is only 8 measly points above the signal line. Chips, banks and commodities are driving the stock market these days. Doctor Copper is lying in a coffin but traders do not care since they are too busy buying stocks.

The bulls are in control and it will be interesting to see if more record highs are ahead for the SPX.

The bears need SOX below 5520, now at 5754, to create market negativity (about a -4% drop; semiconductors failed last week but if you blinked you missed it; the buy the dip crowd brought price quickly higher again).

The bears need XLF below 52.00, now at 53.57, to create negativity (about a -3% drop). The bears need GTX below 3757, now at 3818, to create negativity (a -1.6% drop). Thus, commodities may likely be the metric that reverses the bullish joy and reintroduces stock market selling pressure since it is the easiest metric to turn for the bears.

The bulls are on easy street with bears needing a -1.6% drop in commodities, and/or a -3% drop in the banksters, and/or a -4% drop in semiconductors, to retake control. Choose your poison. Poison Heart with Joey's haunting voice.

Keybot prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning, both one-half hour after the opening bells for the cash trade. The month of August trading ends on Friday (EOM) and September trading begins Tuesday, 9/2/25, after the Labor Day holiday, 9/1/25, when US markets will be closed.

8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/22/25; 10:02 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35; go long 6448 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +21.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +23.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull camp at 10 AM EST Friday morning at 6448 as Pope Powell brought the tablets down from On High and told everyone a rate cut is locked-in for 9/17/25. The crowd goes wild celebrating the crony capitalism system pumping stocks higher. The SPX was up over one hundo points intraday on the euphoria.

Interestingly, despite the rampant euphoric bull party, the S&P 500 did not print a new all-time high. The all-time record high remains at 6481.34 on 8/15/25, the prior Friday; traders must be happy for the weekend on Friday's. The all-time closing high remains at 6468.54 on 8/14/25. The SPX could have easily poked out a new record high and new record closing high but did not. Monday will be interesting.

The quant was champing at the bit to go long and the second Powell opened his pie hole it was off to the races. As previously explained, chips, banks and commodities are the three metrics most impacting stock market direction  currently. The stick-save with the chips and commodities this week paved the way for Powell to flap his dovish wings.

On the last trade that ran for about 3 weeks, the quant program and actual trading each lose a couple percent. On the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up about +10%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +21% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +23% outperforming the benchmark by 2x. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SSO.

Since the banksters are running to the moon, the bears likely need weaker chips and/or commodities to wrestle back the market football. The algo number is only 9 points above the signal line. The end of August trading (EOM) is next Friday.

8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/22/25; 10:02 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35; go long 6448 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +21.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +23.4%)
8/20/25; 11:17 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 11:13 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/20/25; 10:28 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 10:18 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34
8/20/25; 9:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains short
8/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/15/25; 10:01 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
8/11/25; 2:01 PM EST = +44; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 1:43 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38
8/11/25; 12:31 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 11:55 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39
8/11/25; 11:27 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 10:47 AM EST = +30; signal line is +41
8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 2:39 PM EST = +30; signal line is +43
8/8/25; 10:59 AM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 10:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +44
8/8/25; 10:06 AM EST = +44; signal line is +45
8/7/25; 11:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +46
8/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +47
8/6/25; 3:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 12:28 PM EST = +44; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 10:29 AM EST = +28; signal line is +49
8/4/25; 10:19 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50
8/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +50
8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +51
8/1/25; 9:37 AM EST = +12; signal line is +53
8/1/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +54
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +55
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +56
7/30/25; 3:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56; go short 6348 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +7.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +22.7%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +25.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long after a choppy day. The algo number is 9 points above the signal line so the quant wants to go long but cannot since the internal parameters did not fully latch. If the SPX rallies above 6408 moving higher tomorrow, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

If you are bullish, you do not want a gap-up day. Instead, a slow steady move higher would be a better set-up for the quant to flip long. If a gap-up move occurs, it may trigger a timer that will delay the turn to the long side by about 90 minutes.

The surprise today was the failure of the semiconductors; the 'chips were down' literally and figuratively. Instead of the ongoing battle between the commodes and the banksters, today was a battle between the commodes and chips. The SOX fell below 5516 that is major trouble for the stock market as per the quant, and you saw what happened.

GTX, commodities, rallied at first but then fell on their sword below 3756 also in that 10:49 to 10:52 AM time. Stocks were toast but the invisible hand came in at 11:15 AM-ish to save the day pulling both parameters back into the bull camp sending equities higher off the lows.

Bears need SOX under 5516, GTX under 3756 and/or XLF below 52.87. The banksters remain elevated and chips recovered far off the 5516 line in the sand, so commodities will be the most important parameter to the stock market tomorrow. Bears desperately need one of the three parameters to fail and GTX is likely their best shot. Hit Me With Your Best Shot. Pat knew how to shake her assets.

The bulls win with SPX 6408 and higher so watch S&P futures for a potential +12 point rally overnight. The bears win with weaker commodities, or semiconductors, or banks, any one will do, and if 2 or all 3 turn negative, stocks will collapse.

Thursday should be an interesting day ahead of Chairman Powell's speech on Friday morning from Jackson Hole. Jackson should be playing a gig for the banksters in Jackson Hole since the markets may be Running on Empty. Back-up singer Rosemary Butler is a killer voice.

8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/25; 11:17 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 11:13 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/20/25; 10:28 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 10:18 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34
8/20/25; 9:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains short
8/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high at 6481.34 on Friday, 8/15/25, and a new all-time closing high at 6468.54 on Thursday, 8/14/25. The algo number, however, is only 4 points below the signal line which is not much.

Copper and commodities are creating a pall over the stock market and the record high joy. Doctor Copper continues lying on a gurney in the emergency room. The battle for stock market control is commodities versus banks; GTX vs XLF, respectively.

Commodities are creating stock market negativity so the bulls need to push GTX above 3756 and the sadness will turn into upside joy and a rally in equities. If GTX rises above 3756 trending higher, and the SPX moves above 6481, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. The SPX will begin the new week of trading from 6450.

Banks are keeping the stock market buoyant and at the record highs so the bears need to pull XLF below 51.72 to get equities rolling downhill and create market mayhem and pain.

It remains strange times with the sideways SPX price action unwilling to yet commit lower or higher. Keybot prints one prescheduled number this week on Tuesday morning before the opening bell. Watch the commodities vs banks battle; one of them will flinch this week and tell you the market direction forward. The bulls want to Stay at the record top Just a Little Bit Longer a la Jackson and the gang.

8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/19/25; 9:00 AM EST =
8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/15/25; 10:01 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short despite the moonshot in equities today. The SPX gains 72 points today, 8/12/25, for a new all-time record high at 6446.55 and new all-time closing high at 6445.76. Price parks itself at the 6446 palindrome.

The bazaar behavior continues. Commodities fail out of the gate today but stocks gap higher. Bulls need stronger commodities if they want to retake control of the stock market. Commodities ruined the stock market party today puking on the bull's shoes. Banks ran higher supporting the bull case pushing indexes to record highs.

Stock market direction is controlled by the banksters and commodities. Tomorrow will be a cage match since they are in opposite camps. Two enter but only one will exit and take equities in that direction. GTX is below the 3756.90 bull/bear line in the sand creating negativity. Bulls need GTX back above 3756.90 and the rally party will drive strongly higher.

Bears need XLF below the 51.70 line in the sand to create market mayhem.

Simplifying, bulls need GTX above 3757 and the SPX above 6447 for Keybot the Quant to likely flip long. Bears simply need weaker banks and XLF to fall below 51.70 that will cause stocks to fall. The weirdness continues. Strange Days.

8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
8/11/25; 2:01 PM EST = +44; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market crazy ride continues. The bulls had one arm of Miss Commodities and the bears had the other arm and they spent the day dragging her from one camp, to the other, then back again, and back, and back, and by the time the fight was over, the stock market is basically where it started. The struggle was like a fight between Batman and the Penguin. Bam! Pow! Thwack! Bonk! 

It appears that traders want to wait for tomorrow morning when inflation will lift its skirt and reveal what is underneath. If inflation comes in tame below expectations, the rate cut for September will look like a go and stocks may rally. If inflation meets expectations or one tick above, that would be expected and keep the door open to rate cuts but it will not tell a lot. If tariffs start to bite harder, and the inflation numbers beat by two or more ticks and the data appear to be running higher going forward, that puts the September rate cut into question and would likely create a sour mood for equities.

Keybot the Quant, however, is a robot and only sees 1's and 0's. Same-o set-up as last evening. The algo is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. If the SPX moves above 6407 tomorrow going higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why they are never invited to parties, S&P futures will need to rally +34 points overnight (currently negative down -3).

Bears need GTX below 3757.10 to close the door on the bull's hopes. It is only pennies away and this metric was the cause of all of today's commotion. Commodities commotion. Little Eva and the Loco-motion. A fave at all high school dances across America during the 1960's and 1970's and then the song was redone in recent years by other artists.

Bears need XLF below 51.66 only pennies away. Either parameter turning bearish will guarantee the bear path going forward. If both fail, that will hint that stocks are in the process of falling apart. Commodities and banks are controlling stock market direction currently.

Thus, if bullish, you want SPX 6407 to wave the banner of victory going forward. If bearish, you want to see GTX lose 3757 and/or XLF lose 51.66 and if both fail, you will be throwing confetti as screens turn blood red. The Beat Goes On.

8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/11/25; 2:01 PM EST = +44; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 1:43 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38
8/11/25; 12:31 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 11:55 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39
8/11/25; 11:27 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 10:47 AM EST = +30; signal line is +41
8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after a wild Friday. The robot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 2 points above the signal line but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move. The algorithm was one single human hair from flipping long at 2 PM EST-ish on Friday but the internal parameters held it back.

That was Twilight Zone behavior for the quant since these same mathematical machinations played out 12 years ago to the day. It is bazaar. Back in 2013, the quant did go long a few days later, but then whipsawed short again, and lost about -4% over a couple-week period. That has no bearing on what will happen now but it is interesting to see the same odd mathematical behavior on Friday occurred with the model 12 years later to the day.

The bulls are in great shape to take back stock market control. If the SPX moves above 6395 moving higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. This equates to a +6 point rise in S&P futures that will be on line this evening. That will tell you right away if the bulls got game.

The bulls do not want a gap-up move higher in the SPX. This would likely trigger the gap timer and cause the robot to wait about 90 minutes before allowing it to go long, and sometimes stocks end up falling on their sword.

The financials and commodities are the two main market metrics that are controlling direction currently; banks and goods. Bears need XLF below 51.64 (now at 51.85) and/or GTX below 3756.90 (now at 3758.28). You can see it is a game of pennies. If either metric turns negative, the bears are back in the game and will press the downside in equities.

Thus, bulls win with the SPX above 6395 and marching slowly and methodically higher. Bears win if XLF 51.64 or GTX 3756.90 fail.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. S&P futures this evening will probably tell you the story for tomorrow.

8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 2:39 PM EST = +30; signal line is +43
8/8/25; 10:59 AM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 10:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +44
8/8/25; 10:06 AM EST = +44; signal line is +45
8/7/25; 11:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +46
8/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +47
8/6/25; 3:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 12:28 PM EST = +44; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 10:29 AM EST = +28; signal line is +49
8/4/25; 10:19 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls come to play on Monday almost regaining the Friday loss. Retail stocks and banks fold like a cheap suit for the bears and run back into the bull camp creating the upside joy in equities. The algo number is now only 6 points below the signal line.

Same dealio tomorrow. Watch the XRT 78.15 and XLF 51.65 lines in the sand. Both are bullish creating stock market lift. Stocks will weaken if either fails back into the bear camp.

Commodities were teasing failure today while no one was looking but they remain in the bull camp. Watch GTX 3760 now at 3786. Equities will weaken if GTX loses 3760 heading lower.

It is a slow data weak but perhaps it will be an erratic week considering the start. The dip buyers were tripping over each other to buy any stock with a heartbeat. They could not sleep all weekend because they wanted to put their entire paycheck to work in the tech and meme stocks. Retail stocks, banks and commodities are the only three metrics that matter right now.

One way the bulls may wrestle back control is if any of the 3 parameters above dance above and below their lines in the sand a couple times. This behavior would jog the quant algo number closer to the signal line to where it may pop above and set-up a move back to the long side. For now, the bears still have the ball. Tomorrow will be interesting. Jethro Tull prepares everyone for the bull/bear battle. Locomotive Breath. No way to slow down.

8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/25; 10:19 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50
8/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +50
8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the bears hitting cruise control with the algo number 39 points below the signal line. Retail stocks and banks both failed on Friday flushing the stock market down the toilet, but all of you knew that ahead of time, and what to watch.

Watch the XRT 78.03 and XLF 51.67 lines in the sand. The bulls have zero hope for stocks if both remain in the bear camp. If 1 of the 2 turn bullish, it shows that the bulls are fighting back and making a little bit of progress but they need both to turn bullish to stage a real comeback.

Copper creates a pall on commodities and bears need GTX to drop below 3755 to create more stock market negativity. A couple other metrics you can watch that are starting to take on importance are SOX 5383 and NYA 19675. Both would need to drop about -2.5% to -3.0% to hit the lines in the sand and trigger more stock market negativity.

Keybot the Quant does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The bears are running the show. Retail stocks, banks and commodities are controlling stock market direction currently. Bears will need more help from commodities, semiconductors and the NYA index but if these parameters remain bullish, the downside in equities will fizzle. The girls playing Johnny B Goode. Excellent.

8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +51
8/1/25; 9:37 AM EST = +12; signal line is +53
8/1/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +54
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +55
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +56