STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after a wild Friday. The robot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 2 points above the signal line but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move. The algorithm was one single human hair from flipping long at 2 PM EST-ish on Friday but the internal parameters held it back.

That was Twilight Zone behavior for the quant since these same mathematical machinations played out 12 years ago to the day. It is bazaar. Back in 2013, the quant did go long a few days later, but then whipsawed short again, and lost about -4% over a couple-week period. That has no bearing on what will happen now but it is interesting to see the same odd mathematical behavior on Friday occurred with the model 12 years later to the day.

The bulls are in great shape to take back stock market control. If the SPX moves above 6395 moving higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. This equates to a +6 point rise in S&P futures that will be on line this evening. That will tell you right away if the bulls got game.

The bulls do not want a gap-up move higher in the SPX. This would likely trigger the gap timer and cause the robot to wait about 90 minutes before allowing it to go long, and sometimes stocks end up falling on their sword.

The financials and commodities are the two main market metrics that are controlling direction currently; banks and goods. Bears need XLF below 51.64 (now at 51.85) and/or GTX below 3756.90 (now at 3758.28). You can see it is a game of pennies. If either metric turns negative, the bears are back in the game and will press the downside in equities.

Thus, bulls win with the SPX above 6395 and marching slowly and methodically higher. Bears win if XLF 51.64 or GTX 3756.90 fail.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. S&P futures this evening will probably tell you the story for tomorrow.

8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 2:39 PM EST = +30; signal line is +43
8/8/25; 10:59 AM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 10:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +44
8/8/25; 10:06 AM EST = +44; signal line is +45
8/7/25; 11:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +46
8/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +47
8/6/25; 3:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 12:28 PM EST = +44; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 10:29 AM EST = +28; signal line is +49
8/4/25; 10:19 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50