Wednesday, August 20, 2025

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long after a choppy day. The algo number is 9 points above the signal line so the quant wants to go long but cannot since the internal parameters did not fully latch. If the SPX rallies above 6408 moving higher tomorrow, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

If you are bullish, you do not want a gap-up day. Instead, a slow steady move higher would be a better set-up for the quant to flip long. If a gap-up move occurs, it may trigger a timer that will delay the turn to the long side by about 90 minutes.

The surprise today was the failure of the semiconductors; the 'chips were down' literally and figuratively. Instead of the ongoing battle between the commodes and the banksters, today was a battle between the commodes and chips. The SOX fell below 5516 that is major trouble for the stock market as per the quant, and you saw what happened.

GTX, commodities, rallied at first but then fell on their sword below 3756 also in that 10:49 to 10:52 AM time. Stocks were toast but the invisible hand came in at 11:15 AM-ish to save the day pulling both parameters back into the bull camp sending equities higher off the lows.

Bears need SOX under 5516, GTX under 3756 and/or XLF below 52.87. The banksters remain elevated and chips recovered far off the 5516 line in the sand, so commodities will be the most important parameter to the stock market tomorrow. Bears desperately need one of the three parameters to fail and GTX is likely their best shot. Hit Me With Your Best Shot. Pat knew how to shake her assets.

The bulls win with SPX 6408 and higher so watch S&P futures for a potential +12 point rally overnight. The bears win with weaker commodities, or semiconductors, or banks, any one will do, and if 2 or all 3 turn negative, stocks will collapse.

Thursday should be an interesting day ahead of Chairman Powell's speech on Friday morning from Jackson Hole. Jackson should be playing a gig for the banksters in Jackson Hole since the markets may be Running on Empty. Back-up singer Rosemary Butler is a killer voice.

8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/25; 11:17 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 11:13 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/20/25; 10:28 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 10:18 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34
8/20/25; 9:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains short
8/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34

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