Thursday, October 20, 2011

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side today at SPX 1206 at 10:59 AM. Semiconductors failed at the open, then the financials dropped; these two weaker sectors caused the market selling. The move accelerated after SPX 1206 was lost, briefly touching an 1197 handle during munch time, but, in the one o'clock hour, positive Europe news hits our shores and the markets sky rocket. SPX moves from an 1197 handle to a 1219 handle, 22 ticks, in a couple hours.

Keybot closed out the long trade from 10/6/11, two weeks ago, with a nice steady eddy profit. Even though the positive news launched the indexes today, the quant remains short overnight tonight.  A whipsaw will occur tomorrow if the SPX touches 1220 since Keybot will probably flip back to the long side.  If the SPX stays sub 1220 for the Friday session, the algo will probably remain short.

For Friday, the SOX is the key ticker when the bell rings, the semi's.  Watch SOX 363.65, now at 363.88, only about 20 cents higher, the market bulls hanging on by their fingernails. If the SOX stays above 363.65 tomorrow, the bulls will rock into the weekend. If SOX fails the 363.65 level, strong broad market selling will occur.

XLF 12.62 must be watched as well, above and market bulls are happy, like now at 12.80; below, and market bears are happy.  For the SPX, starting at 1215, the market bulls must touch a 1220 handle, if so, the upside will accelerate and indexes will rally into the weekend. Market bears need to push lower to look at that 1197 handle again. If 1197 appears, the down side will accelerate, sellers will enter in force.  Between 1198 and 1218 is sideways slop. Keybot wants to go long again but algo rules are holding it back. Friday's action is important. Watch the SOX.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/20/11; 1:20 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short
10/20/11; 1:06 PM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains short
10/20/11; 10:59 AM EST = -40; signal line is -24; go short 1206; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-4.1%)(Keybot this trade=+5.2%; Keybot for 2011=+29.1%)(Actual this trade via DIA=+4.8%; Actual for 2011=+40.3%)
10/20/11; 10:23 AM EST = -40; signal line is -23 but algorithm says stay long
10/20/11; 10:21 AM EST = -24; signal line is -23 but algorithm says stay long
10/20/11; 10:12 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23
10/20/11; 10:08 AM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains long
10/20/11; 9:49 AM EST = -40; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay long
10/20/11; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains long
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -25
10/18/11; 1:30 PM EST = -8; signal line is -26
10/18/11; 1:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -27
10/18/11; 12:41 PM EST = -8; signal line is -27
10/18/11; 11:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -28
10/18/11; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30 but algorithm says stay long
10/17/11; 9:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -32
10/14/11; 3:56 PM EST = -10; signal line is -34
10/14/11; 3:48 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long
10/14/11; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -38
10/14/11; 3:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -40
10/14/11; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -42
10/14/11; 3:09 PM EST = -40; signal line is -44
10/14/11; 2:59 PM EST = -24; signal line is -44
10/14/11; 1:29 PM EST = -40; signal line is -45
10/14/11; 12:57 PM EST = -24; signal line is -45
10/14/11; 10:13 AM EST = -40; signal line is -46
10/14/11; 10:10 AM EST = -24; signal line is -46
10/14/11; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -48
10/14/11; 9:39 AM EST = -10; signal line is -49
10/14/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/12/11; 10:01 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 3:54 PM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/9/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/7/11; 3:40 PM EST = -40; signal line is -51
10/7/11; 3:22 PM EST = -28
10/7/11; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -52
10/6/11; 10:21 AM EST = -40; signal line is -53; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+0.0%; Keybot for 2011=+23.9%)(Actual this trade via DOG=+0.3%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/20/2011 06:20:00 PM 0 comments

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long, motoring along today without printing any numbers during the session. Volatility, VIX remains elevated. The financials, XLF came down to Keybot's 12.59-12.60 area, but this support did not give way so despite the market selling today, the market bulls are fine suffering no damage.

Watch XLF 12.59, now at 12.61, only two pennies above which is market bullish. XLF will either stay 12.60 or higher allowing the bulls to enjoy the upside, or, XLF will fail under 12.59 which will usher in broad market selling. For the SPX, starting at 1210, the market bears have an advantage since a move down well into the 1206 level will result in an acceleration of the selling, down to 1204, then lower. The market bulls need 20 handles to keep the upward momo going, to touch 1230, a diffult task. A move thru 1207-1227 is sideways action.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -25
10/18/11; 1:30 PM EST = -8; signal line is -26
10/18/11; 1:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -27
10/18/11; 12:41 PM EST = -8; signal line is -27
10/18/11; 11:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -28
10/18/11; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30 but algorithm says stay long
10/17/11; 9:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -32
10/14/11; 3:56 PM EST = -10; signal line is -34
10/14/11; 3:48 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long
10/14/11; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -38
10/14/11; 3:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -40
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/19/2011 07:35:00 PM 1 comments

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot remains long to start the Wednesday session. The pre-scheduled 9 AM print for the quant shows the same algo number but the signal line continues to rise. This incrementally continues to bring Keybot closer to flipping short as time moves along. Stay on guard.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -25
10/18/11; 1:30 PM EST = -8; signal line is -26
10/18/11; 1:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -27
10/18/11; 12:41 PM EST = -8; signal line is -27
10/18/11; 11:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -28
10/18/11; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30 but algorithm says stay long
10/17/11; 9:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -32
10/14/11; 3:56 PM EST = -10; signal line is -34
10/14/11; 3:48 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long
10/14/11; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -38
10/14/11; 3:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -40
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/19/2011 09:04:00 AM 0 comments

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo came close to flipping short during the big sell off yesterday morning, but stayed the course.  Utes broke down, but only for one-half hour, then recovered adding buoyancy to the broad markets. Then financials kicked into gear and the indexes never looked back.

For today, Keybot prints out a pre-scheduled number before the open. Financials, XLF, and volatility, VIX will tell the tale in early trading. As long as the XLF stays above 12.60, now at 12.79, the market bulls will maintain upward buoyancy in the indexes. VIX should be a pivotal sector area to watch. If the VIX, now at 31.56, drops under 29.30, pop the champagne corks since the market bulls will be partying like it's 1999. The market bears need to keep the VIX elevated, a move under the 30 level can serve as an early signal that the bulls are making a further run.

For the SPX today, starting at 1225, if you see a 1233 handle the large block buyers will enter in force, and the indexes will jump several more handles with a bull celebration. SPX 1242 would be the next upside target. The market bears have a long road to hoe today since they would need to retrace yesterdays up move to regain any control, and that is unlikely at this juncture. The bears will instead try to limit the market upside and they will attempt that by preventing the VIX from falling under 30 or especially 29.30, while at the same time trying to move the XLF back under 12.60. A move thru SPX 1192-1232, although a 30 point range, would be considered sideways slop for today.


10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/18/11; 1:30 PM EST = -8; signal line is -26
10/18/11; 1:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -27
10/18/11; 12:41 PM EST = -8; signal line is -27
10/18/11; 11:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -28
10/18/11; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30 but algorithm says stay long
10/17/11; 9:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/19/2011 06:12:00 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The utilities recovered above UTIL 436.75, and SPX:VIX ratio regained the 35+ level at 10:23 AM, negating the negative day on tap. Watch UTIL 436.75 and XLF 12.57. XLF is now 12.52, if it gains a nickel more, this will further ignite the broad market upside.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/18/11; 11:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -28
10/18/11; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30 but algorithm says stay long
10/17/11; 9:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -32
10/14/11; 3:56 PM EST = -10; signal line is -34
10/14/11; 3:48 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long
10/14/11; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -38
10/14/11; 3:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -40
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/18/2011 11:58:00 AM 0 comments

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

UTIL failed 436.75 at 9:53 AM ushering in market weakness. The algo number is under the signal line indicating that the quant wants to flip to the short side but other rules are holding it back. The quant came within three minutes of going short but did not pull the trigger. SPX LOD 1191.48 requires close watching the rest of the day. For now, Keybot remains long. Exercise caution. Watch UTIL 436.75 and SPX:VIX 35 level.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/18/11; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30 but algorithm says stay long
10/17/11; 9:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -32
10/14/11; 3:56 PM EST = -10; signal line is -34
10/14/11; 3:48 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long
10/14/11; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -38
10/14/11; 3:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -40
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/18/2011 10:31:00 AM 0 comments

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Tuesday session begins. Despite the big sell-off in the indexes yesterday, the algo remains long, for now. No additional numbers printed after the opening bell number yesterday; the utes remain buoyant so the market bears have not seized back control of the markets yet.

Some of the major sectors tracked by the algo show that the semiconductors, retail and utes are bullish, as measured by the quant, with financials, copper, commodities and volatility in the bear camp. Thus, flip flops in these categories will drive broad market direction. The key to watch when the bell rings is UTIL 436.75, now at 438.14. If 436.75 fails, the down move is real and Keybot will likely flip short. If 436.75 holds, Keybot will probably remain long and perhaps the markets will buy back yesterday's losses.

For the SPX today, if the index loses a couple points to get under 1198.50, the sellers will enter in force and drop the SPX several additional handles quickly. If this occurs, watch UTIL to see if it cracked, or not, if so, the down side is real.  If UTIL holds 436.75, then the indexes should recover. The market bulls will simply try to stop the market selling today. Since the bulls need to get up and over 1224 to bring the bullish energy back, a formidable task today, the bulls will settle with stopping the UTIL from falling under 436.75; this would keep the bulls in the overall game.  A SPX move thru 1200-1222 is sideways slop. Caution is warranted, especially in the early trading, the utes will tell the tale after the bell rings.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/17/11; 9:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -32
10/14/11; 3:56 PM EST = -10; signal line is -34
10/14/11; 3:48 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long
10/14/11; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -38
10/14/11; 3:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -40
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/18/2011 05:59:00 AM 0 comments

Monday, October 17, 2011

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Utes, financials and volatility all flip flopped. Utes were bearish, as measured by the algo, at Friday's close, they flipped bullish after the bell today. Financials and volatility were bullish at Friday's close, they flipped bearish.

Continue to monitor UTIL 436.75, XLF 12.57 and VIX 29.25 to determine market direction today. UTIL current print is 440.12 (market bullish), XLF is 12.52 (market bearish) and VIX is 30.29 (market bearish). Markets should continue along flatish from here unless one of these three change, which will in turn cause market direction to push in that direction.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/17/11; 9:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -32
10/14/11; 3:56 PM EST = -10; signal line is -34
10/14/11; 3:48 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long
10/14/11; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -38
10/14/11; 3:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -40
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/17/2011 09:49:00 AM 0 comments

Sunday, October 16, 2011

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long to start the new trading week. The algo came close to flipping short late Friday but the bulls launched the markets in the final minutes to keep the party going. On Monday's opening bell, the quant is set up to print a higher number which would result in the first time the algo number is positive since late July, just before the August crash.

The recovery rally over the last couple weeks is driven by semiconductors and retail. Traders are banking on the expected Q4 positive seasonality. Retail data was better than expected last week so the two main bull fuel drivers pushed the indexes higher. For the new week ahead, utilties, financials and volatility will play a key role.

If the XLF stays above 12.58, now at 12.60, then the market bulls will continue with upward market buoyancy. If volatility as measured by the VIX stays under 28.65, now at 28.24, collapsing into the Friday close, then this will favor the bulls as well.  The magic number for the utilites this week is UTIL 436.75 so jot this down at your work station and monitor it closely. UTIL is now at 438.76 to start the week so the quant will pop upwards at the opening bell IF the utes maintain this posture.

For the SPX for Monday, starting at 1225, the market bulls have the advantage. All the bulls need is to see green futures, even a few pennies will be good enough, and the indexes will launch several handles in the early trade. Particularly watch the important resistance cluster at 1225-1227, a break thru and 1233 will appear quickly.  For the market bears, they continue to try to stop the upside momo, and the bears need to keep the futures red overnight. If the bears can see a 1205 handle, they can accelerate the down side with heavier selling, but, at about 20 points lower, this is a formidable task.  A move thru 1207-1223 is sideways markets.

Even though the picture is very bullish now do not rest on your laurels, a turn can occur in a heart beat. Note that the signal line at -32 is climbing substantially now and the XLF and VIX are only marginally bullish. Earnings will play a pivotal role. Do not take the upside for granted, stay on guard. The quant prints out one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -32
10/14/11; 3:56 PM EST = -10; signal line is -34
10/14/11; 3:48 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long
10/14/11; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -38
10/14/11; 3:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -40
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/16/2011 08:30:00 AM 0 comments

Friday, October 14, 2011

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long into the weekend. Financials launched higher and volatility dropped big in the final four minutes causing the SPX to close at its highs on the day. Note how the algo number actually dipped under the signal line indicating that the quant wants to go short. Other rules in the programming held it back, and then the financials and volatility sealed the deal for a bullish finish instead in the final minutes.

Keybot printed 14 numbers today, an extremely active day for the quant, and, typically, hints that the algo is becoming open to the idea of going short. Next week's road map will be provided on the weekend; rest assured that XLF, UTIL and VIX will continue to dictate broad market direction.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/11; 3:56 PM EST = -10; signal line is -34
10/14/11; 3:48 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long
10/14/11; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -38
10/14/11; 3:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -40
10/14/11; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -42
10/14/11; 3:09 PM EST = -40; signal line is -44
10/14/11; 2:59 PM EST = -24; signal line is -44
10/14/11; 1:29 PM EST = -40; signal line is -45
10/14/11; 12:57 PM EST = -24; signal line is -45
10/14/11; 10:13 AM EST = -40; signal line is -46
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/14/2011 04:20:00 PM 0 comments

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Hang on tight, the algo may want to turn before the close..............

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/11; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -38
10/14/11; 3:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -40
10/14/11; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -42
10/14/11; 3:09 PM EST = -40; signal line is -44
10/14/11; 2:59 PM EST = -24; signal line is -44
10/14/11; 1:29 PM EST = -40; signal line is -45
10/14/11; 12:57 PM EST = -24; signal line is -45
10/14/11; 10:13 AM EST = -40; signal line is -46
10/14/11; 10:10 AM EST = -24; signal line is -46
10/14/11; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -48
10/14/11; 9:39 AM EST = -10; signal line is -49
10/14/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/12/11; 10:01 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 3:54 PM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/9/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/7/11; 3:40 PM EST = -40; signal line is -51
10/7/11; 3:22 PM EST = -28
10/7/11; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -52
10/6/11; 10:21 AM EST = -40; signal line is -53; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+0.0%; Keybot for 2011=+23.9%)(Actual this trade via DOG=+0.3%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/14/2011 03:50:00 PM 0 comments

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo clicked off a couple more numbers during an active day today. UTIL finally attained 439 to help the market bulls move higher after lunch time today, but then collapsed back under.  The broad markets will not move higher unless UTIL 439, XLF 12.55 and/or VIX 28.70 provides the oomph. Currently all three remain in the bear camp as measured by the quant. Semi's and retail continue to be the sole bull support sector-wise. Note the algo number is now only five points away from the signal line.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/11; 1:29 PM EST = -40; signal line is -45
10/14/11; 12:57 PM EST = -24; signal line is -45
10/14/11; 10:13 AM EST = -40; signal line is -46
10/14/11; 10:10 AM EST = -24; signal line is -46
10/14/11; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -48
10/14/11; 9:39 AM EST = -10; signal line is -49
10/14/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/12/11; 10:01 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 3:54 PM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/9/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/7/11; 3:40 PM EST = -40; signal line is -51
10/7/11; 3:22 PM EST = -28
10/7/11; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -52
10/6/11; 10:21 AM EST = -40; signal line is -53; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+0.0%; Keybot for 2011=+23.9%)(Actual this trade via DOG=+0.3%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/14/2011 02:17:00 PM 0 comments

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot remains long but both the higher financials and lower volatilty, that fueled the upward thrust at the open, have reversed back into the market bears favor again.  With UTIL remaining under 439, XLF under 12.55-12.60 and VIX above 28.70, there is no reason for the markets to be elevated today. Note that the algo number is now only six points away from the signal line, caution is warranted moving forward.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/11; 10:13 AM EST = -40; signal line is -46
10/14/11; 10:10 AM EST = -24; signal line is -46
10/14/11; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -48
10/14/11; 9:39 AM EST = -10; signal line is -49
10/14/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/12/11; 10:01 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 3:54 PM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/9/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/7/11; 3:40 PM EST = -40; signal line is -51
10/7/11; 3:22 PM EST = -28
10/7/11; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -52
10/6/11; 10:21 AM EST = -40; signal line is -53; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+0.0%; Keybot for 2011=+23.9%)(Actual this trade via DOG=+0.3%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/14/2011 10:30:00 AM 0 comments

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot remains long. The algo is active currently, financials popped at the open and the volatility dropped fueling the upside rally.  However, XLF over the last couple minutes has dropped under the critical 12.55-12.60 level again, so keep watching. Ditto VIX, it dropped under 28.70 to fuel the upside but now it is popping back above. Things can change quickly, stay tuned............

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/11; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -48
10/14/11; 9:39 AM EST = -10; signal line is -49
10/14/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/12/11; 10:01 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 3:54 PM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/9/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/7/11; 3:40 PM EST = -40; signal line is -51
10/7/11; 3:22 PM EST = -28
10/7/11; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -52
10/6/11; 10:21 AM EST = -40; signal line is -53; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+0.0%; Keybot for 2011=+23.9%)(Actual this trade via DOG=+0.3%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/14/2011 10:16:00 AM 0 comments

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot remains long to start the final trading session for the week. The algo motored along yesterday with semi's and retail continuing to fuel the rally, financials, volatility and utes are on the fence, and copper and commodities remain bearish.

Thus, watch XLF 12.55 closely today. This is the level the quant is watching, XLF is now at 12.45, which favors market bearishness.  If the market bulls want to run the indexes higher, they need to get the XLF up and over 12.55 today and for it to stay above. The same idea goes for the utilties. Watch the UTIL 439 level today, market bearishness is currently favored with UTIL now at 435.  The third metric is volatility, VIX, that remains elevated helping market bearishness. If the VIX, now at 30.70, can drop a couple bucks, to 28.70, then the market bulls will accelerate the upside in the broad markets.

For the SPX today, starting at 1203.66, the market bulls need to see 1207.50, if so, the upside will accelerate with increased buying interest. The market bears need to push down below 1191, if an 1190 handle appears, the market bears will have the juice to drop the markets several more handles. A move thru 1192-1206 is sideways action.

So watch XLF 12.55, UTIL 439, and VIX 28.70. The algo kicks out a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM. This is a targeted pivot area for the markets today as sentiment data and business inventories hit.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/12/11; 10:01 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 3:54 PM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/9/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/7/11; 3:40 PM EST = -40; signal line is -51
10/7/11; 3:22 PM EST = -28
10/7/11; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -52
10/6/11; 10:21 AM EST = -40; signal line is -53; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+0.0%; Keybot for 2011=+23.9%)(Actual this trade via DOG=+0.3%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/14/2011 07:49:00 AM 0 comments

Thursday, October 13, 2011

STOCK MARKET BULLISH - LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo printed a number at the open as the financials collapsed out of the gate. Looking at a few major sectors that Keybot is currently scanning, semiconductors and retail remain the two sectors supporting the market bulls. Financials, utilities, commodities and high volatility are bearish acting as a weight on the indexes today, especially financials as a result of JPM's uninspiring earnings.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/12/11; 10:01 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 3:54 PM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/9/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/7/11; 3:40 PM EST = -40; signal line is -51
10/7/11; 3:22 PM EST = -28
10/7/11; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -52
10/6/11; 10:21 AM EST = -40; signal line is -53; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+0.0%; Keybot for 2011=+23.9%)(Actual this trade via DOG=+0.3%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/13/2011 10:14:00 AM 0 comments

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long idling along today with no additional numbers printing. Semi's, retail and as of today, financials, are lifting the broad markets.  XLF closed at 12.74, above the critical 12.60 level the algo is now fixated on, so the market bulls came to play again today. The indexes will remain buoyant as long as XLF stays above 12.60.

The utes, UTIL, however, languished today, barely getting above 438 in the afternoon session, never threatening 439, so the market bears have something to hang their hat on. Market upside is limited unless UTIL goes over 439 this week. Similarly, volatility, the VIX, came down but never really threatened the 28.75 level, so the market bears kept the volatility elevated to help their cause.  Markets will not move up unless either the utes or volatility cooperates.  Markets will weaken if the XLF falls back under 12.60.

For the Thursday session, the SPX begins at 1207.   Market bulls need to see a 1220 handle, if so, the buyers will enter in force.  Market bears need to see 1196 give way, if so, the sellers will enter in force.  A move thru 1197-1219 is sideways action.

In a nutshell, for the direction of the broad markets, watch XLF 12.60, UTIL 439, VIX 28.75 and SPX 1120/1196.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/12/11; 10:01 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 3:54 PM EST = -24; signal line is -50
10/10/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/9/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -50
10/7/11; 3:40 PM EST = -40; signal line is -51
10/7/11; 3:22 PM EST = -28
10/7/11; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -52
10/6/11; 10:21 AM EST = -40; signal line is -53; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+0.0%; Keybot for 2011=+23.9%)(Actual this trade via DOG=+0.3%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)
Posted by Keybot the Quant™ at 10/12/2011 07:09:00 PM 0 comments
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